As we continue our occasional series in reflecting on the Rose Bowl — and various lessons it offers — it is worth saying that this next lesson is not specific to Wisconsin. It is something all football fans would do well to absorb. It is also something college football media outlets — print, television, radio, web — should become better at presenting. This is a football education topic more than a Badger topic.
The Rose Bowl — it can reasonably be claimed — was decided by Wisconsin’s turnovers. That is an entirely logical and sound conclusion. Few would dispute it. Yes, poor officiating was a factor, and Oregon did have to capitalize on the breaks it received. Plenty of forces created the 28-27 final score in favor of the Ducks. This wasn’t a “one-factor” result in which only one flaw turned the tide. Wisconsin’s penalties in the first half were a problem, not just turnovers. Wisconsin’s red-zone offense also wasn’t good enough to win this game.
The bigger point I intend to convey in this article is that while turnovers mattered, something else mattered just as much as the turnovers if not more: location, location, location. I am referring to the location of Wisconsin’s turnovers. Football media outlets — particularly television, which is almost always ESPN or ABC (ESPN televised the Rose Bowl) — have not yet learned how to capture the significance of the location of turnovers on the field.
We do get “points off turnovers” as a standard component of football analysis these days. That’s good, and I’m not trying to suggest it isn’t beneficial to the television viewer. However, we ought to take another step in the right direction to more fully inform viewers. Television (ESPN) should be able to tell its national audience two things during broadcasts:
- The average drive start for a team as a direct result of turnovers committed by the opposition.
- The average length of a scoring drive coming off a turnover.
We don’t get these pieces of information in football analysis — not generally, and especially not on major network TV or ESPN/Fox Sports 1.
So, you might be wondering, then: What is the relevant information from the 2020 Rose Bowl on these two points? Glad you asked.
The average drive start for Oregon after Wisconsin’s four turnovers — if you consider a fumble return for a touchdown (on the fumble by Wisconsin’s punter) as a “0” in terms of numerical value — is the Wisconsin 25-yard line.
I will show you the math just so this doesn’t seem mysterious.
Oregon started drives at the Wisconsin 36, 33, and 30 after Badger turnovers, and then ran back the fumble for a touchdown, which is a zero. Those four numbers add up to 99. If you divide 99 by four, that’s 25, rounded to the nearest whole number. If you used decimal points, it’s 24.75.
On Oregon’s three scoring drives — all touchdowns — the average length was the Wisconsin 21.
Again, here is the math, shown for clarity: Wisconsin stopped Oregon on downs on one drive which started at the UW 36. On the other two drives, from the 33 and the 30, Oregon scored. Then the fumble return for a touchdown is — once again — zero.
33 plus 30 plus 0 equals 63. Divided by 3, you get 21.
Do you see how this layer of statistical analysis is important? Wisconsin could have committed the same four turnovers, but in Oregon’s end of the field. Oregon could have had drive starts at its own 33 instead of the Wisconsin 33. Location, location, location mattered in the Rose Bowl.
It’s not just turnovers, but where they are committed. Football analysis, on TV and everywhere else, needs to be better at documenting that and showing the numbers to viewers in the new decade.