Two-time MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers could get hot. An up-and-down offense could finally achieve some level of consistency. Both are possibilities as the Green Bay Packers prepare to face the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Divisional Round on Sunday.
But neither is guaranteed, and both are probably unlikely, considering the results of the first 16 games and the level of competition ahead.
The Packers will need Rodgers and the offense to carry its weight this postseason, but the path to the Super Bowl must be paved by the one constant from Matt LaFleur’s team this season: a dominant pass-rush.
No position group looks better suited to power a potential run to the Super Bowl than the talented and versatile players that make up Mike Pettine’s pass-rush.
A dominant pass-rush wins games in the postseason. Just ask the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks, two NFC teams that advanced last weekend by pressuring the opposing quarterback into submission. The pass-rush was especially important for the Vikings, who kept Drew Brees under constant pressure throughout Minnesota’s upset of the Saints in New Orleans. The Seahawks all but sealed their win in Philadelphia with a fourth-down sack, the defense’s seventh of the night.
The Packers can go far this month because they can pressure the quarterback. It’s arguably the best thing this 13-3 team has going entering the postseason.
Za’Darius Smith (13.5 sacks, 37 quarterback hits, 93 pressures) was one of the two or three most disruptive defensive players in football in 2019. He can wreck a passing attempt from any angle and Pettine does a terrific job at freeing him up and creating one-on-one opportunities. He led the NFL in pressures, quarterback hits and pressure rate. If there’s one player that can take over the postseason, it’s No. 55.
Kenny Clark overcame a mid-season lull brought on by injuries and increased attention from opponents to finish as the second-most productive interior rusher in football. He got healthy and dominated over the final six games. With Za’Darius Smith operating more and more as a rover, Clark took on more and more one-on-one blocks, and few interior linemen can consistently single block Clark. With Aaron Donald and Fletcher Cox both eliminated from the playoff field, Clark might be the most important interior defender left in the NFC. Like Za’Darius, he can take over games.
The X-factor will be Preston Smith. Early in the season, he made splash plays in abundance and was as good or better as Za’Darius. He cooled over the final two months of the year and failed to create as many impact plays, but if he heats back up in the postseason, it’s hard to see how any offensive line will consistently keep the Packers out of the backfield.
The pass-rush isn’t two deep on the edge. Kyler Fackrell delivered 10 quarterback hits and was effective in coverage despite playing fewer snaps in 2019, and rookie Rashan Gary really started coming on during the last month of the year. If Fackrell can continue playing well in a complementary role, and Gary can keep improving and providing one or two impact rushes a game, the Packers will have everything they need to produce a game-changing pass-rush throughout the playoff run.
The disruption must start Sunday. Russell Wilson is as good at escaping pressure and creating plays as any quarterback in the game, but constant pressure in the pocket affects all quarterbacks, and Wilson isn’t immune to the mistakes and inefficiency that comes with being a rattled and battered passer.
Postseason games are often decided by a quarterback making a big play in a high-leverage situation. The best way to prevent those plays is creating disruption and consistently pressuring the passer.
The Packers must not have an offense capable of taking over games, but they have the quality of pass rush often required to make a deep postseason run. LaFleur’s team will go as far as the defense’s ability to disrupt the quarterback can take them.