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This week’s Sony Open in Hawaii sees the PGA Tour’s first full-field event since the RSM Classic in late November. The 7,044-yard, par-70 Waialae Country Club hosts the tournament yet again in Honolulu, Hawaii.
The key stats for this week are:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Bogey Avoidance
- Good Drives Gained
- Eagles Gained
- Strokes Gained: Par 4s
My model at Fantasy National is set to the most recent 36 rounds for each golfer in the field played on par-70 courses under 7,200 yards in length and featuring Bermuda grass greens.
Sony Open – Tier 1
(Photo Credit: Adam Hagy – USA TODAY Sports)
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 8:45 a.m. ET.
Webb Simpson (+1200)
Simpson leads my stat model and is the best in the field in both SG: Approach and SG: Par 4s. He’s third in the field with an Official World Golf Ranking of No. 12, and he shares the second-best odds with Patrick Reed. The five-time PGA Tour champ didn’t play here last year, but he was T-4 in 2018 and T-13 each of the three previous three years.
Marc Leishman (+4500)
Leishman tied for third here a year ago, and he hasn’t finished worse than T-47 in any of his last five tries. He ranks seventh in the field by the OWGR measure, but he’s 13th by the odds at BetMGM. He’s a good value pick following last year’s top finish and a solo third at the Safeway Open in September early in his 2019-20 campaign.
Sony Open – Tier 2
(Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)
J.T. Poston (+5000)
Poston is coming off a T-11 finish in the 30-man field at last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions. He has missed just one cut in nine events since vaulting into the top 100 of the OWGR with his first career win at last season’s Wyndham Championship. He leads the field in Bogey Avoidance, and he ranks seventh in Good Drives Gained and fourth in SG: Par 4s.
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Rory Sabbatini (+8000)
Sabbatini is one of many in the field returning to competitive play for the first time since the RSM Classic. He’s coming off a 2019 calendar year in which he had six top 10s against just four missed cuts for his most successful season since his last PGA Tour win in 2011 at The Honda Classic. This is a similarly short venue, and he’s made the cut in four of his last five appearances with a T-6 result in 2015.
Sony Open – Longshots
(Photo Credit: John David Mercer – USA TODAY Sports)
Luke List (+15000)
List didn’t play this event last year following a missed cut in 2018, but he did finish T-13 in 2017. He enters the week ranked 145th in the world following three missed cuts to start his 2019-20 season, but he did have two runners-up last year. He also finished second at the 2018 Honda Classic amid a stronger field.
Mackenzie Hughes (+25000)
Hughes isn’t much of a course fit (49th in Eagles Gained and 57th in SG: Approach), but this number is far too high for a former PGA Tour champ. A $1 sprinkle at these odds returns a profit of $250.
Complete odds
| Player | Odds |
| Justin Thomas | +500 |
| Webb Simpson | +1200 |
| Robert Streb | +1500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +1800 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2000 |
| Matt Kuchar | +2200 |
| Sungjae Im | +2200 |
| Anirban Lahiri | +2500 |
| Peter Malnati | +2500 |
| Ryuko Tokimatsu | +3000 |
| Joaquin Neimann | +3300 |
| Charles Howell III | +4000 |
| Corey Conners | +4000 |
| Alex Noren | +4500 |
| Chez Reavie | +4500 |
| Kevin Kisner | +4500 |
| Marc Leishman | +4500 |
| Abraham Ancer | +5000 |
| Brandt Snedeker | +5000 |
| Brendon Todd | +5000 |
| Brian Harman | +5000 |
| Cameron Smith | +5000 |
| J.T. Poston | +5000 |
| Sebastián Muñoz | +5000 |
| Aaron Wise | +6600 |
| Andrew Putnam | +6600 |
| Brian Stuard | +6600 |
| Carlos Ortiz | +6600 |
| Lanto Griffin | +6600 |
| Russell Knox | +6600 |
| Ryan Palmer | +6600 |
| Daniel Berger | +7000 |
| Dylan Frittelli | +8000 |
| Kevin Na | +8000 |
| Kyle Stanley | +8000 |
| Rory Sabbatini | +8000 |
| Vaughn Taylor | +8000 |
| Zach Johnson | +8000 |
| Brian Gay | +9000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +9000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +9000 |
| Pat Perez | +9000 |
| Brice Garnett | +10000 |
| Bud Cauley | +10000 |
| Henrik Norlander | +10000 |
| Joel Dahmen | +10000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +10000 |
| Matt Jones | +10000 |
| Nate Lashley | +10000 |
| Russell Henley | +10000 |
| Ryan Armour | +10000 |
| Scott Piercy | +10000 |
| Shugo Imahira | +10000 |
| Sung Kang | +10000 |
| Tyler Duncan | +10000 |
| Adam Long | +12500 |
| Chris Kirk | +12500 |
| D.J. Trahan | +12500 |
| Doc Redman | +12500 |
| Fabian Gomez | +12500 |
| Graeme McDowell | +12500 |
| Harry Higgs | +12500 |
| Jimmy Walker | +12500 |
| Nick Taylor | +12500 |
| Patton Kizzire | +12500 |
| Xinjun Zhang | +12500 |
| Charley Hoffman | +15000 |
| David Hearn | +15000 |
| Jason Dufner | +15000 |
| Kevin Tway | +15000 |
| Kramer Hichok | +15000 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | +15000 |
| Luke List | +15000 |
| Robby Shelton | +15000 |
| Sam Burns | +15000 |
| Scott Brown | +15000 |
| Talor Gooch | +15000 |
| Zac Blair | +15000 |
| Hudson Swafford | +17500 |
| Matt Every | +17500 |
| Matthew NeSmith | +17500 |
| Scott Harrington | +17500 |
| Adam Schenk | +20000 |
| Andrew Landry | +20000 |
| Bo Hoag | +20000 |
| Brendan Steele | +20000 |
| Cameron Davis | +20000 |
| Cameron Percy | +20000 |
| Chesson Hadley | +20000 |
| Hank Lebioda | +20000 |
| Mark Hubbard | +20000 |
| Sam Ryder | +20000 |
| Roger Sloan | +22500 |
| Brandon Hagy | +25000 |
| Chase Seiffert | +25000 |
| Doug Ghim | +25000 |
| J.J. Spaun | +25000 |
| James Hahn | +25000 |
| Jim Herman | +25000 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +25000 |
| Michael Thompson | +25000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +25000 |
| Sepp Straka | +25000 |
| Ben Martin | +30000 |
| Ben Taylor | +30000 |
| Graham DeLaet | +30000 |
| Jamie Lovemark | +30000 |
| Jerry Kelly | +30000 |
| Joseph Bramlett | +30000 |
| Kristoffer Ventura | +30000 |
| Rafael Campos | +30000 |
| Rhein Gibson | +30000 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | +30000 |
| Rob Oppenheim | +30000 |
| Ryan Brehm | +30000 |
| Tyler McCumber | +30000 |
| Will Gordon | +30000 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | +35000 |
| Chris Baker | +40000 |
| Mark Anderson | +40000 |
| Mikumu Horikawa | +40000 |
| Bo Van Pelt | +50000 |
| Colt Knost | +50000 |
| Kazuki Huga | +50000 |
| Martin Trainer | +50000 |
| Michael Gellerman | +50000 |
| Michael Gligic | +50000 |
| Parker McLachlin | +50000 |
| Smylie Kaufman | +50000 |
| Vijay Singh | +50000 |
| Alex Beach | +75000 |
| Tyler Ota | +75000 |
| Eric Dugas | +100000 |
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