The 2020 Miami Dolphins have a lot in common with the 2018 New York Jets.
Both teams are or were 1) looking for a franchise quarterback, 2) picking in the top-six and 3) have or had enough draft capital to move up and secure the hopeful future of their franchise. The 2018 Jets opted to trade early in the offseason, sending their No. 6 overall pick and three second-rounders to the Colts for the No. 3 pick. That ended up being Sam Darnold. Now, the Dolphins are in position to do the same with six selections in the first three rounds – if they want to.
But should the Dolphins do what the Jets did and move up? Probably not. Unless they sell the farm for the likely No. 1 pick Joe Burrow or believe Tua Tagovailoa is healthy enough to be selected soon after, the Dolphins should and likely will stay firm with their first pick at No. 5 overall.
There are two key differences between the situation the Jets faced in 2018 and the one the Dolphins face now: Burrow is the only true top-five quarterback in the 2020 draft and the Dolphins have so many more picks they can effectively dictate the quarterback market in the draft by waiting or trading.
In 2018, the Jets sat at No. 6 with a loaded quarterback class. By the end of the first round, five quarterbacks were drafted – four of which were taken with a top-10 pick. Because of the saturation of available prospects and amount of QB-needy teams, the Jets were basically forced to move up to No. 3 to secure at worst the third-best quarterback on their board in case of the off-chance the five picks before their own ended up being quarterbacks. The package of the sixth, 37th and 49th selections in 2018, as well as the 34th in 2019, was an expensive price to move up only three spots, but it was necessary for a desperate New York team that didn’t believe Josh McCown or Teddy Bridgewater were the future.
The Dolphins do not have that problem given the way the 2020 draft board played out and the prospects available. Burrow is basically off the table unless the Dolphins want to give the Bengals all of the draft capital they spent the past two seasons acquiring, and the only other quarterbacks who are currently top-10 prospects are the injured Tagovailoa and Oregon’s Justin Herbert. Neither is projected to go earlier than No. 5, meaning the Dolphins should be able to sit at their current draft position and make their decision then.
While Darnold has the potential makings of a franchise quarterback, the consequences of the Jets giving up three second-round picks to move into position to take Darnold have left the team void of much home-grown talent. Granted, there’s no way to know if former GM Mike Maccagnan would even have drafted the right players with those three picks given his track record, but he didn’t even have the option after making the trade. The Jets have instead relied on free agent acquisitions that haven’t worked out and left the team with a couple of bad contracts and a lack of depth at critical positions.
Things could easily change between now and April, though. Tagovailoa may get healthy faster than anticipated and become a tantalizing prospect for a team willing to move ahead of the Dolphins to take him. Other players like Herbert, Washington’s Jacob Eason or Georgia’s Jake Fromm could rise up draft boards as well, much like Duke’s Daniel Jones did in 2019 before the Giants took him sixth overall. If the Dolphins are targeting a quarterback, they may have to pull the trigger at No. 5 or move up if the board begins to shift in the spring.
Another option the Dolphins have is the luxury of waiting until later in the first round for a quarterback or trading up from their other two spots to draft a quarterback after their No. 5 selection. The quarterback class after Burrow is difficult to access, and players like Herbert and Tagovailoa could easily fall into the middle section or even to the end of the first round. Miami also has the 18th and 27th pick thanks to trades with the Steelers and Texans and could use those selections to trade up and grab a quarterback in the middle of the first after using their No. 5 pick on a different position.
Luckily for Miami, the Dolphins are in the same position as the Jets and don’t need to sacrifice their bountiful supply of draft picks in order to secure a quarterback. They can rest on their laurels and watch the draft board fall their way in the hopes of either grabbing a quarterback at No. 5 or waiting for someone else to fall. Another more long-term option is to wait until the 2021 draft for quarterbacks like Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence or Ohio State’s Justin Fields. But given how the Dolphins looked toward the end of the 2019 season, coach Brian Flores and GM Chris Grier probably won’t want to wait another season to develop a quarterback.
The Dolphins have many more options than the Jets did in 2018 to secure a quarterback, and it’s unlikely trading into the top three is one of those options. With so many picks at their disposal and the potential to draft a player like Trevor Lawrence in 2021, the Dolphins would be wise to sit tight and wait for their player rather than frantically move up to draft a player who will likely be there for them at No. 5 anyway.