Former Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy probably couldn’t have landed in a better spot after spending a year away learning and attempting to reinvent himself as a coach.
A talented roster, an experienced quarterback and an owner and general manager willing to take risks and stick by the coach should give McCarthy a chance to win – and win immediately – as the new coach of the Dallas Cowboys.
McCarthy, who was fired by the Packers in December of 2018, spent the weekend in Dallas and won over owner/GM Jerry Jones. After coaching the Packers for 13 years, McCarthy is now preparing to take over for Jason Garrett, who spent nine years as the head man in Dallas.
In McCarthy, Jones and the Cowboys are getting an experienced NFL coach with a Super Bowl win and a history of working closely with the quarterback position.
In the Cowboys, McCarthy is getting a talented young quarterback in Dak Prescott, a talented young running back in Ezekiel Elliott and one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, plus weapons in the passing game and a strong framework on defense. In terms of personnel, the Cowboys are set up to win immediately – especially if McCarthy can get even more out of Prescott in a new (and potentially modernized) offense.
They should have won big in 2019. The Cowboys scored 113 more points than they allowed, and teams with that point differential are “expected” to win almost 11 games. The Cowboys were sixth in the NFL in DVOA but finished 8-8.
Even if the Cowboys hold steady in those categories next season, they’ll be expected to win a bunch of games, especially with a second-place schedule.
For better or worse, McCarthy will also get a general manager who is the polar opposite of Ted Thompson.
Jones has always worked in the spotlight. Most of the time, he craves it. He’ll stay aggressive and make the tough decisions but still stand in front of the media and explain those moves and decisions. Thompson, the ultimate scout, worked behind the scenes, loathed the public relations side of the job and left McCarthy to be the spokesperson of the franchise.
As the coaching carousel started spinning in December, McCarthy put on a full-court press selling himself as a reinvented coach who has embraced the analytics side of the game and the work required to learn from past mistakes made in Green Bay.
Old habits die hard, but if McCarthy is truly a changed coach, with new ideas and a new appreciation for where the game is headed, he could turn the Cowboys from an underachieving 8-8 team in 2019 to a legitimate contender in the NFC in 2020.
The best-case scenario for the Cowboys hiring McCarthy is the former Packers coach becoming the second coming of Andy Reid, who wore out his welcome in Philadelphia but eventually reinvented himself in Kansas City. McCarthy will have a similar opportunity in Dallas, especially with the quarterback already in place.
In Green Bay, McCarthy got a chance to work with Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre. In Dallas, McCarthy will get Prescott, who threw for almost 5,000 passing yards and 30 touchdown passes in 2019. He’s young and athletic with a big arm and a ton of talent, and the Cowboys will likely sign him long-term this offseason, creating a rock-solid partnership between coach and quarterback. There is a legitimate opportunity for development ahead, and if Prescott takes another step as a quarterback, the Cowboys can and likely will go far.
One thing McCarthy can count on: Jones and the Cowboys will give him time, even if there’s an expectation that the team wins right away. Garrett lasted nine seasons in Dallas despite four 8-8 seasons and only three playoff appearances. This won’t be a one-and-done situation. McCarthy will have an opportunity to change the culture and reinvent the franchise.
All new head-coaching hires have the chance of failure, and hiring a retread who failed with Rodgers over his final two seasons in Green Bay comes with risk. But McCarthy, after a necessary year away from the league, now has all the ingredients required to win in his new home, and win big.