Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been wishy washy on the New England Patriots quarterback’s future, because he may not be the team’s signal-caller for much longer.
They know the truth: the match is making less sense by the day.
When asked about his pending free-agency decision, Brady said he loved the Patriots but wouldn’t make any predictions. Belichick got borderline combative while throwing idioms like “the future is the future” at reporters. The Patriots coach provided one sliver of insight into his deferring — he said the negotiation is “not a one-way street.” It’s not ground-breaking, but it’s a reminder that both Brady and Belichick have to want this. And it’s not crazy to imagine they have a sour taste in their mouths after 2020.
As it stands now, Brady’s house is on the market and his contract includes a clause to prevent the Patriots from placing a franchise tag on him. If he wants, he can enter free agency without discussing an extension with the Patriots. Similarly, the Patriots can let Brady test the market and see what kind of deal he has. Then they could try to match. It’s a cold and calculated way to deal with one of the most accomplished players in NFL history. But it would be more of the same for Belichick, who is known to treat his players the same, whether it’s Brady or the 53rd man on the roster.
So if Brady and Belichick are miles apart for an extension — which is likely considering Brady reportedly doesn’t intend to take a hometown discount — then Brady may well enter free agency to see which teams are interested. That’s when the Patriots and Brady may find they’re not right for each other. It comes down to how New England is constructed.
New England have somewhere between $49 million and $42 million in cap space. It’s easy to imagine Brady asking for $30 million a year — that leaves the Patriots with a very tight cap situation. And it’s not like Brady is the only pending free agent: safety Devin McCourty, offensive linemen Ted Karras and Joe Thuney, linebackers Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins and Elandon Roberts and special teamer Matthew Slater, among others.
Retaining those players would leave the talent issues unaddressed on the offensive side of the ball. Brady proved in 2019 that he could elevate the play of his teammates — he needs them to elevate his play, apparently. Likely anticipating that strange reality, Belichick spent 2019 looking for but failing to find talent. The 42-year-old quarterback needs more talent to play well, barring a major bounce-back in 2020. But what is more likely is that Brady declines further. But there doesn’t seem to be enough money for the Patriots to retain Brady and a few necessary pending free agents (McCourty, Karras and Collins or Hightower) while bettering their offense.
Even Brady — who has been as impressive as anyone in the history of the NFL at staving off time — will continue to age. If the Patriots are going to give Brady big money, they’ll need him to make the most out of Julian Edelman, Mohamed Sanu and N’Keal Harry. The tight end and receiver positions would be challenging to upgrade. If the Patriots can’t add veterans in free agency on offense, who’s to say their current options won’t struggle tremendously again in 2020? The Patriots will have the draft young talent on offense, but as we saw in 2019 with Harry, it can be difficult (or impossible) to get rookies involved under Brady.
The truth is that the Patriots need Brady to take a major discount if they’re going to succeed with him at quarterback. If he took a small salary, they could do their best to surround him with the talent he badly needs. But because the Patriots don’t have the cap space to accommodate Brady and an improved arsenal of skill players, they may have to pass on the quarterback’s demands.
It’s a bizarre situation, where Brady needs better than the Patriots and the Patriots can’t bet on Brady getting better.
The biggest thing that holds them together is sentimentality. But Belichick may be the least sentimental man in football.
Belichick must know that the shrewdest move is to let Brady walk — like the Patriots did with a player like receiver Wes Welker. Maybe Brady excels for a year or two. Maybe he continues to regress. But the Patriots don’t want to be the team that overpays him while he’s teetering one way or the other. They wan’t to bail a year too early. They may have to move on to a low-budget quarterback whose salary will allow supporting cast.
[vertical-gallery id=77566]