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Five years ago it was the best news any Michigan football fan could ask for. Its former starting quarterback-turned-head coach Jim Harbaugh was coming back home to coach the football team.
Michigan had been struggling with former head coaches Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke, but Harbaugh was going to change that. Those two coaches only beat Ohio State once and got one BCS bowl win, but zero Big Ten championships and zero National Championships, surely Harbaugh would do better.
Well, not so fast my friend.
While Harbaugh has improved Michigan and gotten them back to being a contender in almost every season, he brought them up from mediocre to great. His first season he went 10-3 and won a bowl game, and that is not what anyone expected. The process in people’s minds was going to be a two-three year rebuild before Michigan could get 10 wins, but that expectation was better than anyone thought and suddenly, it meant getting more than 10 wins was the goal next season.
The goal for every team each year is to improve from last season, everyone knows that. So if Harbaugh comes in and year one gets 10 wins, 11 or more is certainly possible, right? Wrong.
Harbaugh’s coaching record at Michigan is 47-18 and that’s an impressive record, but it just isn’t enough.
Harbaugh has led Michigan to three 10-3 seasons, a 9-4 season this year, and an 8-5 record back in 2017. Those are winning records and something to be happy about, but those aren’t the records anyone expected five years into the Harbaugh effect. More is expected at Michigan as well.
He hasn’t beaten Ohio State, hasn’t won a Big Ten Championship title, appeared or won a College Football Playoff game or a National Championship. Out of the five bowl games he’s been in, he only won the debut in 2015. Lost to Florida State in 2016, South Carolina in 2017, Florida in 2018, and now Alabama in 2019.
Harbaugh was brought in to help rebuild Michigan, and while he’s rebuilt them to being a tough team again, they just aren’t taking that next step. They are a great team, but they aren’t elite. They aren’t up there with Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, LSU, even Oklahoma. What’s the issue? That is something nobody has the answer to, not even Harbaugh himself.
At first, it seemed like it was the offense so Harbaugh hired Josh Gattis as the new offensive coordinator and while the start of the year was rough, the team seemed to have figured things out as the season progressed. The offense has changed and the recruiting is focusing on players that fit into that offense. Overall, that change won’t happen and I don’t think people want that to change.
Could it possibly be the defensive coordinator Don Brown? His defenses have been top-notch, finishing in the top three since arriving in 2016 and continued through 2018, and is currently ranked seventh without today’s game getting accounted for. But when it comes time to perform in big games, the defense (along with the offense sometimes as well) seems to crumble under pressure and can’t get past the big hurdle. Could that be the issue?
Maybe it’s with recruiting and the type of players he gets? Since 2015, Harbaugh’s recruiting class rankings have been 37th, 8th, 5th, 22nd, 8th, and 12th. Those aren’t horrible, but excluding the two months he had in 2015 and finished with the 37th ranking, he’s averaged an 11th ranked recruiting class. He doesn’t get many five-stars to come to Michigan and one way to get better is to land those five-stars, along with developing the four and three-stars into playing more than their ranking.
Harbaugh has to make some changes to his team and his program. He did it last year and while they regressed, they still did make some progress, but it feels like they are back to where they were last January. This isn’t how the end of year five is supposed to feel. Michigan is still a winning program, but what do they need to do to get back into the spotlight?
For now, Harbaugh feels like his team is trending in a positive direction, despite having regressed in the win-loss column.
“Well, I feel good about (the young players),” Harbaugh said after the VRBO Citrus Bowl. “I feel good about some of the young players that got great experiences this season and, you know, them getting their opportunity, going to work on that. I mean — this season just ended ten minutes ago, so ‑‑ but I know I’m going to be excited about (the future).”
Could Harbaugh be the problem in the end? Don’t expect him to leave for the NFL or any other coaching position, that will not be happening. But sooner or later he is going to have to win something meaningful.
Beating SMU, Western Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, those can only get you so far. Beating teams like Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Penn State are where you can see actual progress. Then taking down the elite teams you play like Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson, LSU, and Oklahoma are where you know you’ve made it.
Harbaugh has made changes to his coaching staff when it comes to secondary coaches, then the offense, and while he didn’t force the defensive changes back in 2016, he might have to make one soon. Harbaugh is only going to be given so much time and changes to make things the way they should be before he’s out of chances and time. Eventually, if he isn’t able to fully do what he was brought to do at Michigan, then his time will run out.
For now, he’s here and will have to go back to the drawing board in 2020 to figure out what went wrong and what he has to do to fix it. Will any changes happen to the coaching staff? Will he change his coaching style? Will he recruit differently? 2020 is another year to figure out what the problem is, and even if Michigan is able to do just one elite thing next year, like beat Ohio State, or win the Big Ten Championship, that’ll be true progress.
Michigan is back to being great, but they just aren’t elite yet. Being elite wins you the big games. Being elite wins you titles. The time for Michigan to be elite has to be soon, or else mediocrity continue to be normalcy in Ann Arbor.
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