The Miami Dolphins have been locked into the 5th overall pick and the 18th overall pick in the 1st-round of the upcoming 2020 NFL draft. At 5, there’s little hope that the Dolphins will find LSU quarterback Joe Burrow on the board — he’ll have long been a Cincinnati Bengal by the time the Dolphins are on the clock. But what if that was not the case — what if the Dolphins still found a way to manufacture the #1 pick?
The Dolphins are poised to have a successful future with five 1st-round picks over the next two seasons, but the key to success in the NFL is still undoubtedly the quarterback position. Could the Dolphins use that ammunition to prompt the Bengals to trade out? It’s unlikely, but yes — it should be considered a slim possibility for Miami to package picks to move up to first overall. And given their assets, the Dolphins could potentially do so without mortgaging their future like the Washington Redskins did for Robert Griffin III earlier this decade.
It will require a big package of picks for a team to move to the 1st-overall pick. The Redskins traded up from the sixth overall pick, to the second overall pick with the Rams in their deal for Griffin. The trade distance (four spots) cost the Redskins three first rounders (2012/2013/2014) and a second round pick (2012).
The Dolphins have the 5th overall pick and would have to move up that same distance, four spots, to get the first overall pick. And unlike the Redskins, Miami has so many picks in 2020 they could maneuver picks without hurting their future draft classes. Miami could offer up their three first round picks this year and a second this year in a deal and still have a second round pick this year, two first round picks next year and two second round picks next year left over. The Redskins were set back by a trade of this magnitude —the Dolphins would be to a much lesser degree.
Currently, the value for the first overall pick is 3000 points according to NFL Draft trade value charts. Miami’s three 1st-round picks (5th, 18th and 25th – tentatively) are worth 3,320 points. That’s not quite enough really to push the for a QB hungry Bengals team. For good measure, general manager Chris Grier could throw in a third round pick (70th overall) — worth an extra 240 points.
Grier could also manipulate a deal to keep one of the 1st-round picks this year and part ways with a 1st next year, instead.
Getting Cincinnati to accept an offer? That’s the tricky part. But history and past trades indicate Miami could at least have the ammunition to manufacture a trade for Burrow with the first overall pick and not give up any picks beyond 2021 or even 2020.
Smile Dolphin fans, brighter days are ahead. The Dolphins have never had this much buying power before.
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