This Dallas Cowboys season has been incredible. Not in the “wow that’s so cool!” sort of incredible, but rather the “this series of heartbreaking events seems statistically impossible” sense of the word.
If you can separate yourself emotionally from this team, it’s really remarkable to gaze upon. A short list of some of the quote-unquote accomplishments of the 2019 Cowboys as we head into the final week of the regular season:
- Top-5 passing & rushing offenses by EPA
- +82 point differential
- 25% chance at a division title and playoff spot while holding a 7-8 record
- Top-10 rank in opponent adjusted EPA differential
With all that in mind, let’s take a peek at how they match up with the rest of the teams according to our EPA power rankings.
Expected Points, the foundation of many analytical arguments, uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.
A play with a positive EPA means it put the offense in a better position to score, while negative EPA implies the offense is in a worse position.
The below rankings represent team EPA differential (offense EPA minus defense EPA) adjusted for opponent strength.
We’ve already spent so much time this year discussing why the Cowboys aren’t winning as much as their score differential or advanced stats say they should, but as the season winds down to a disappointing end, we have to accept that they just aren’t the contender we thought they were. But that doesn’t change the formula for opponent adjusted EPA differential, which depicts the Cowboys as the third most efficient offense in the NFL.
The two offenses that rank better than the Cowboys are the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Ravens are on another plane of existence with their offense. The difference between the Ravens offense and Chiefs offense is the same as the difference between the Chiefs and the Oakland Raiders. Paired with a defense that has, since Week 5, been on par with the New England Patriots, and these ranks agree that the Ravens are strong AFC favorites.
The best defenses over the course of the whole season remain the San Francisco 49ers and the Patriots. All together, the top four teams in these rankings feature the two best offenses and the two best defenses. The Saints come in at five after a pretty significant drop-off in EPA differential. It’s important to remember that they spent five weeks with a backup quarterback playing for an injured Drew Brees, which means this could underrate them a bit. Since Brees’ return in Week 8, the Saints have an adjusted EPA differential similar to that of the Chiefs and actually better than the Patriots.
The biggest fall this week came in Seattle. A double-digit loss to the Arizona Cardinals was enough to drop them out of the top-10 all the way down to 14, just one spot ahead of what could be their wild card opponent Philadelphia Eagles. The Seahawks defense has improved as the season has moved along, but the offense has stalled. In the second half of the season Seattle’s passing offense is actually below average in EPA/dropback. Russell Wilson’s play has dropped off from an MVP-worthy start to the year, and his receivers haven’t helped him out at all either.
The Seattle Seahawks lead the league in fumbles lost on completed catches, and in Expected Points lost on these fumbles pic.twitter.com/xwSsZj08Sc
— new-age analytical (@benbbaldwin) December 23, 2019
As for their likely opponents in the wild card round, the Eagles saw the biggest bump in their ranks this week when they hopped into the driver’s seat of the NFC East. Philadelphia is showing a bit of life on offense even with z̶e̶r̶o̶ three wide receivers on the roster. One more win against the 27th ranked Giants would put the Eagles in the playoffs, but with the way the NFC East has gone this year, we can’t really count that one as a lock.
Speaking of the NFC East, let’s talk about the bottom of these ranks for a minute.
The fact that the Miami Dolphins have four wins is a true testament to just how random football can be. The Dolphins have the fourth-worst EPA differential by my model of any team since 2009. In the not unlikely scenario that they get rolled by the Patriots in Week 17, they could potentially become the second worst in that time frame, trailing only the 2009 St. Louis Rams. The offense is bad, but it’s the defense that stands out in Miami. They’re currently holding the title of worst defense by adjusted EPA allowed since 2009.
Meanwhile Washington and Cincinnati, both of whom have fewer wins than Miami, are also in the bottom-20 by EPA differential and could easily finish in the bottom-15 with losses next week. The last season to have this many teams be this bad was 2009, when four different teams were in the bottom-10 of these all-decade rankings.
That leaves us with a lot to look forward to in Week 17. The Dolphins could fall all the way down into historic territory without a first-overall pick to show for it. Dallas can still win the division if the Eagles stumble against New York. With an 18-point victory against Washington, they could also become the first team since the 1989 Bengals to win fewer than nine games while finishing the season with a +100 or above point differential.
I suppose there may not be many happy story lines to look forward to, but from an outsider’s point of view, this is some truly remarkable chaos we’ve witnessed in 2019.
[vertical-gallery id=636854][lawrence-newsletter]