The Houston Texans knocked off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 Saturday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium in Week 16 to lock up the AFC South and ensure a postseason berth.
Where are the Texans seeded, and who would they be playing?
As of Sunday before the kickoff of the early games, Houston is the No. 4 seed. They would host the Buffalo Bills, the No. 5 seed and the conference’s top wild-card. No one knows when they would play, but it would seem the early afternoon Saturday time slot would be the most likely candidate as Houston has always had to play that time slot in their five previous wild-card games.
The Texans have no chance at a first-round bye. The Baltimore Ravens are 12-2 and the New England Patriots are 12-3 with two games and a game to go respectively. Houston won’t be able to catch New England and activate their head-to-head tiebreaker.
However, the Texans could move up to the No. 3 spot, though they would still be playing during wild-card weekend. The Kansas City Chiefs, currently 10-4, would have to lose either all their remaining games or just one plus a Texans win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 17. That would kick in the Texans’ head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City, and then the Texans would be hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, projected as the No. 6 seed with an 8-6 record, in the wild-card round.
The Texans have never achieved a first-round bye in franchise history. Furthermore, the city of Houston has never had their NFL team possess a first-round bye since 1993 when the Houston Oilers won the AFC Central achieved the No. 2 seed. The Oilers lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 28-20.
Since 1990, when playoff formats were last altered to add a second wild-card team per conference, 28 of the 116 wild-card round winners ended up winning in the divisional round. The Texans have a long way to go to get to the city’s first conference title game since 1979, but getting a start at home helps.