Derek Carr is a sore subject when it comes to Raiders fans. The quarterback leaving the field to a chorus of boos as he walked off the field at Oakland Coliseum for the last time was the definition of the relationship with this loyal fan base.
Most of it is based around his perceived toughness or lack thereof, which is crazy because he played with a transverse fracture in his back that sidelined Carson Wentz and Matthew Stafford.
Fans question his overall fire for the game that has come under criticism after he mentioned how he wants to be there when his kids grow up earlier in the year. The other part comes from blind Gruden worshipping, thinking he is a genius, and the quarterback is holding him back.
The other side gives Carr way too many excuses and doesn’t look at his play from a logical standpoint either. They consistently overrate his game and allow him too much credit when he performs well.
Carr’s season has been a complicated one with the team overachieving early because of his play and falling back to earth once defenses decided to stop him and allow the Raiders to run the football. The real question is, has he played his way to be starter Week 1 in Las Vegas?
Is it a legitimate question to ask, especially with the severe unknown of the actual relationship between the quarterback and the play-caller. Michael Lombardi weighed in this Monday morning in an article for The Athletic.
Still, he mentioned how Carr makes too many mistakes when the second-round pick is 10th in interception percentage since he entered the league according to pro football reference. It plays into the mystery of their bond because nobody knows if Gruden likes Carr or not for sure.
The rumors will be everywhere this offseason, but let us sit back and examine if Carr actually has played his way to Vegas. Making a case for his stay and making a case for why he should go.
Why he should be the starter?
From a stats perspective, there can be a case to be made that Carr is playing the best football of his career. Carr, before this season, struggled to be efficient and has struggled at consistently moving the football even in his MVP caliber season. 2019 we have seen a complete turn around in this department.
Carr has a career-high in EPA(expected points added) at 47.5 according to sports info solutions, which ranks tenth in the NFL right ahead of Aaron Rodgers. His raw QBR is higher than his 2016 season at 61.1, according to ESPN, and he leads the league in passer rating on third down at 127.
Carr has been the best quarterback this year on third down leading the league in EPA, touchdowns, and yards. He has achieved career highs in YPA and his best passing rating under pressure at 92.3, according to PFF.com.
These numbers display a quarterback who is thriving in a system. While it is not adding up to points for the Raiders offense, it will be hard for Gruden to find a quarterback to run his offense as efficiently as Carr does on a game to game basis. Also, this is one of the worst receiving corps in league with not one receiver scaring any defense and teams loading up to stop Darren Waller.
The Raiders’ front office might take the approach that if they add more pieces around Carr in the offseason, he could have a massive year. Gruden could see this as a reason why Carr moves into the house next to him as a neighbor.
Why They Should Move On
On the flip side of this, let’s be honest. Carr is always going to be Carr. After almost six seasons of production, he is about as mid-tier as an NFL quarterback can be, and the Raiders need a signal-caller who can go toe to toe with Patrick Mahomes.
Carr’s quirks are never going to change or get better at this point in his career. His pocket presence has improved this season, but it is just gone from bad to stable. Also, pressure stats are always year to year. Next season we could see the same old Carr creep back up and lead the league in interceptions under pressure.
The Raiders quarterback will continue to throw the ball away on a fourth down and not take chances or be aggressive. Fans will always be frustrated with the way he plays football, and he hasn’t used his athleticism at all since he broke his leg in 2016.
It might just be time for new scenery for Carr as well. Seeing old teammates, he was around during the winning in 2016, thriving in other places has to be in the back of his mind.
If he can get signed to a team that thinks they are a quarterback away from becoming a contender, he could find himself in a better organization than the Raiders. Carr needs a coordinator that forces him to be aggressive, and Gruden just isn’t that guy. If he can find himself in a better situation, it might cause a career revival for Carr. This could be an excellent split for both the team and the player.
Prediction
With Gruden making an excuse after excuse during his press conferences, Carr is receiving a mulligan for this season. The head coach threw Carr under the bus a couple of times in 2018, but this season, there has been praise after every game, no matter the outcome.
There are two games left this season and could mean a change if Carr plays these last two games terribly on the road. As of right now, Carr should be the starter in Vegas and will probably get competition from veteran back up, such as Case Keenum.
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