The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) and Atlanta Falcons (5-9) are both coming off victories in Week 15 and they’ll meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Sunday of Week 16 for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. We analyze the Jaguars-Falcons odds and sports betting lines, while providing sports betting tips and advice on this matchup.
Jaguars at Falcons: Week 16 preview, betting trends and notes
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- The Falcons upset the playoff-bound San Francisco 49ers by a 29-22 count on the road last week for their second straight win. It’s the second time all season they’ve won back-to-back games and they’ll be looking to string three Ws together for the first time since the final three weeks of last season.
- The Jags snapped a five-game losing skid with their 20-16 road victory over the Oakland Raiders. They had lost each of their previous five games by two or more scores.
- Atlanta ranks 15th in the NFL with 23.5 points per game. Jacksonville is 27th with just 17.9 PPG. The Falcons’ 370.3 yards of offense per game rank 11th. The Jaguars are 20th with 344.8 YPG.
- The Jaguars and Falcons rank 23rd and 25th, respectively, in points allowed per game at 25.2 and 26.1. The Jags allow 10 more yards per game than the Falcons.
- The Falcons have a turnover differential of minus-6 to the Jags’ minus-3 differential.
- The Jags are tied for fifth in the league with 43 sacks. The Falcons are 29th with just 24 sacks. Atlanta has also allowed 43 sacks to the 36 given up by Jacksonville.
Jaguars at Falcons: Key injuries
Jaguars WR DJ Chark (ankle) is hoping to return this week after sitting out Week 15.
Falcons DL Takk McKinley (shoulder) joined CB Desmond Trufant (arm) and WR Calvin Ridley (abdomen) on the Reserve/Injured list.
Jaguars at Falcons: Odds, betting lines and prediction
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 7 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Jaguars 23, Falcons 20
Moneyline (?)
The Falcons (-334) are far too heavily favored at home following a colossal upset of the 49ers last week as 10-point underdogs. The JAGUARS (+260) are the play at an inflated number showing too much respect to the home side. Jags QB Gardner Minshew is now 3-2 on the road as a starter in his rookie season. The Jaguars are the better defensive club and offer the hope of nearly a 3x return on your investment.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Jaguars to win outright returns a profit of $26.
Against the Spread (?)
Liking the JAGUARS (+7.5, -125) to win outright, they’re also a fine play to cover the spread for the less-adventurous bettors. They’ll need to stay within 7 points in a loss, or win outright.
Both teams are coming off ATS wins as road underdogs. Jacksonville is 3-3 ATS as a road dog this season. Atlanta is 1-2 as a home favorite, where they fail to cover by 5.8 PPG.
Over/Under (?)
The Falcons hit the Over in each of their last wins. The Jags fell well short of a projected total of 46.5 last week against the Raiders. Atlanta is 6-8 against the Over/Under for the year, Jacksonville is 7-7. Take the UNDER 45.5 (-110) on a number seemingly propped up by the victories last week for both sides.
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Esten’s NFL betting record: 45-42
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