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Fortune kept giving New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady opportunities, but he just couldn’t seize them. When New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees missed five games with an injury to his throwing hand, sidelining him from their race to unseat Peyton Manning as the NFL’s all-time leader in touchdown passes, Brady failed to take control of the race and held the door open long enough for Brees to catch up to him.
Again, in Week 15, Brady had a shot at breaking the record before Brees. He was playing one of the NFL’s worst teams a day before Brees would take the “Monday Night Football” stage, and just needed rack up some scores on the lowly Cincinnati Bengals. But he couldn’t get it done.
Now, Brees is set to star in prime-time and surpass Brady and Manning both. Brees will take the field against the Indianapolis Colts with 537 career touchdown passes to his credit, trailing Brady (538) and Manning (539) for the record. A single passing touchdown will tie him with Brady. Two will match the mark with Manning. Three or more rewrites the NFL record books.
The enormity of this record can’t be summed up just by comparing Brees to those two all-time greats, though. Before Brett Favre broke the record Dan Marino set in 1999 (ending his career with 420 career passing touchdowns; Favre shattered that total with 508), the record stood for nearly a decade. When Marino broke it himself, he did so after Fran Tarkenton retired with 342 career touchdowns passes — back in 1978. It took 17 years for anyone to best the mark Tarkenton established.
And it might take that long for anyone to break the record Brees could set, once it’s all said and done. Though he’s tied with Brady for now, they could both retire in the next year or two and not shock anyone. Whoever ends up winning this record will hold onto it for a long, long time. Many of the active quarterbacks behind Brees and Brady are closer to retiring themselves than playing in their prime. Here’s how the standings shake out among them, with ages in parentheses:
- Tom Brady (42), 538 touchdown passes
- Drew Brees (41 in January), 537 touchdown passes
- Philip Rivers (38), 395 touchdown passes
- Eli Manning (39 in January), 366 touchdown passes
- Ben Roethlisberger (37), 363 touchdown passes
- Aaron Rodgers (36), 362 touchdown passes
- Matt Ryan (34), 319 touchdown passes
- Matthew Stafford (31), 256 touchdown passes
- Russell Wilson (31), 224 touchdown passes
- Joe Flacco (35 in January), 218 touchdown passes
Of the names on that list, only Rodgers, Ryan, Stafford, and Wilson feel like they may have the staying power (and secure starting jobs) to challenge Brees (or Brady) someday. But even that’s pushing it; if each of them averaged 30 touchdown passes a year (a tall order considering only two quarterbacks have done so this year, with two games remaining), here’s how old they would be when they get to 540 or more career passing touchdowns:
- Aaron Rodgers (42, six years)
- Matt Ryan (42, eight years)
- Matthew Stafford (41, ten years)
- Russell Wilson (42, eleven years)
So, yeah: if there’s any realistic challengers to the throne Brees (or Brady) will one day sit on, it will take them almost a decade or more to close the gap, and that’s with them playing at a sustained, high level. That isn’t a guarantee especially for players with frequent injury issues (Stafford), or who are stuck in run-first offenses (Wilson), or who are simply cursed to never win anything due to playing for the Atlanta Falcons (Ryan). Maybe Rodgers catches up, but he doesn’t feel like the type of fanatical competitor who will want to continue playing football deep into his forties.
That’s just added motivation for Brees to go out and break Manning’s record (which was Favre’s record, and Marino’s record, and Tarkenton’s record), and cement himself among the greatest quarterbacks to ever spin a football. Sure, it’s not something that will be actively on his mind during the game, but this record and the implications it carries have to be something Brees is aware of. As his career continues winding down and becoming the stuff of legend, it’s records like this that will pad out his Hall of Fame-worthy resume. Saints fans should take every opportunity to enjoy Brees and what he’s done while he’s still wearing shoulderpads.
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