Already noted as a marquee game before the start of the season, this week’s battle between the Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) and New England Patriots (10-2) feels a little different heading into the contest than many expected, but no less anticipated and important in the AFC. Here are three keys for a Patriots victory.
1. Play effective man coverage
The Patriots love to play man coverage. In fact, they play man (61.7 percent) more than any other team this season, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
In turn, Patrick Mahomes has seen the most man coverage (49.3 percent of dropbacks) in the NFL.
Last year, New England took deep threat Tyreek Hill out of the game via a double team with Jonathan Jones in man coverage and Devin McCourty over top, with Stephon Gilmore playing man coverage on Kansas City’s No. 2 wideout, Sammy Watkins.
Bucky Brooks calls this a Cover 1 Rat defense, with the free safety (McCourty) directly lined up above Hill, with Jones in that underneath man coverage.
Considering the success New England had with this at times in last season’s AFC title game, the Patriots would be wise to lean on that again. They have the personel (league’s best secondary) to do it.
Of course, the Patriots will still need to cover tight end Travis Kelce in man coverage, and Gilmore is a better option for that in most scenarios, over the likes of Patrick Chung, Jason McCourty and J.C. Jackson.
Regardless, man coverage is the way to go versus Mahomes and Chiefs, if you can swing it. And the Patriots can.
2. FINALLY get the passing game going
Regardless if they play effective defense or not, the Chiefs will score some points — and likely more points than New England’s normal opponent.
So the Patriots will need to score some points.
Will the offense finally get things going through the air on Sunday?
Kansas City has been better on defense in recent weeks, with rookie Juan Thornhill and the versatile Tyrann Mathieu playing well at safety. But a 40-9 win over the Oakland Raiders looks less impressive when the Raiders lost to the New York Jets, 34-3, the week before.
Even with the potential to affectively rush Brady, the Patriots should be able to get something going through the air.
Philip Dorsett and Mohamed Sanu should be fully healthy, and N’Keal Harry should be able to learn from last week’s disappointing effort. Couple that with potential huge games for Julian Edelman and James White, and there is a chance New England gets something going through the air. We’ve said this in prior weeks, but this has to be the week.
3. Come close to repeating rushing success from 2018 AFC title game
The Chiefs are still struggling against the run. They’re 30th in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 141.3 yards per game on the ground.
Last season, Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead had success on the ground versus the Chiefs in the 2018 AFC Championship Game — Patriots rushed for 176 yards and four touchdowns.
Without David Andrews, James Develin and Rob Gronkowski, New England has struggled to run the ball, but has seen glimpses of success with the return of left tackle Isaiah Wynn.
Whether or not they have success through the air, they’ll have to also have some success on the ground.