NFL playoff picture: What matters most to each team after Week 12

Here’s what each playoff hopeful needs to worry most about right now.

The playoffs are five weeks away, and it seems like just a matter of time before the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers meet in the Super Bowl. At least, they seem like logical favorites after Week 12.

But there’s good news: We get to see that Super Bowl scenario in Week 13. The 49ers head to Baltimore to deliver a matchup of the NFL’s best teams. The thing about the NFL and its playoff structure is that we’re likely to see teams get hot — and suddenly the 49ers and Ravens won’t be the best teams in the league by the time Super Bowl 54 actually rolls around.

But considering the state of playoff picture, it doesn’t hurt to celebrate this version of a Week 13 Super Bowl. Here’s a look at that upcoming game and the rest of the playoff picture after Week 12.

1. New England Patriots (10-1)

Who matters most: Julian Edelman.

Could you imagine this offense without Edelman? Tom Brady is having a rough year as it is. The Patriots survived in Week 13 against the Cowboys despite injuries to receiver Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett. But it’s hard to imagine the Patriots coping without Edelman, who has been the avocado in Brady’s ice cream. The Patriots don’t have contributors at tight end. They are struggling to get young receivers Jakobi Meyers and N’Keal Harry on the same page as Brady. And running back Sony Michel, the bell cow and bulldozer last postseason, has been erratic.

So if Edelman went down, the Patriots offense, which has averaged just 16.7 points per game in the last three matches, would be lost,

2. Baltimore Ravens (8-2)

What matters most: Week 13.

I opened this story with an eye on the matchup between Lamar Jackson and the 49ers defense. And the truth is that Jackson matters most to this offense. He is unique, and the offense works around everything that makes him special. But that Week 13 matchup could be the most anticipated matchup of the 2019 regular season. The Ravens’ record is worse than the Patriots, but Baltimore whooped New England head-to-head. And maybe there’s a similar dispute in the AFC as to whether the Seahawks or 49ers are better (with Seattle winning their first head-to-head matchup).

Regardless, this game should be a delight, as we watch Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh try to deal with the Ravens’ whack-a-mole rushing offense.

3. Houston Texans (7-4)

What matters most: Deshaun Watson to Will Fuller.

Watson averages 62.5 more passing yards per game and 1.1 more passing touchdowns when Fuller plays, per NFL Research. That’s an absurd boost in production, and shows Fuller is well above his replacements. Obviously, the Watson-DeAndre Hopkins connection is hugely important. But Fuller’s health has been spotty. When he misses time, the Texans offense suffers.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

What matters most: Getting Patrick Mahomes right against the Raiders.

If there’s any defense for Mahomes to posterize, it’s Oakland, which had the fifth-worst passing defense in the NFL entering Week 12. Maybe the Raiders’ pass-rush is developing nicely behind rookies Maxx Crosby and Clelin Ferrel. So long as Mahomes can get the ball out, he’ll dissect the secondary. Mahomes is putting together an impressive but not jaw-dropping season. It’s time for him to go back to blowing our minds every week.

5. Buffalo Bills (8-3)

Who matters most: John Brown.

Last season, the Bills defense carried their team to a handful of big wins. Yes, Josh Allen’s rushing efforts made a major difference, too. But none of it felt sustainable unless Buffalo improved on offense, which would mean a complete overhaul at receiver this offseason. That’s basically what the Bills did, though they didn’t seem to bring in any one player who could be the No. 1 option. Brown, Cole Beasley and Duke Williams looked like complementary parts.

And yet Brown is eighth in receiving yards (856), 20th in receptions (58) and tied for 16th in receiving touchdowns (5) among all pass-catchers. His production is among the league’s finest, and it has made all the difference for the Bills.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

What matters most: Duck’s calls.

I can’t imagine a scenario where the Steelers are relevant in the playoffs. But I am very interested in the fact that Delvin “Duck” Hodges is a world champion duck caller. (It does not seem he has the potential to be a world champion signal-caller, however.)

Still in the hunt

  • Indianapolis Colts (6-5): The Colts badly need Jacoby Brissett to stay heathy. Turns out, Indy had two starting caliber QBs on their roster to start the year (Andrew Luck and Brissett). But they don’t have three. Don’t count out the Colts.
  • Tennessee Titans (6-5): I’m only half kidding when I say that Ryan Tannehill is playing like an MVP candidate.
  • Oakland Raiders (6-5): What matters most? Nothing. It should be all despair in Oakland. The Raiders lost a game to the stinking Jets. I had so much faith. Why did I have so much faith?

1. San Francisco 49ers (10-1)

What matters most: George Kittle’s insanity.

The guy played with a broken bone in his ankle. I’m not a doctor, but I hear you need your ankle for running, changing direction and general upright activities. Still, Kittle finished with team highs in receptions (6) and receiving yards (129) on Sunday. He also had a touchdown.

“It’s like a piece of tree bark came off,” Shanahan said of the injury Sunday, via the Sacramento Bee. “It was just a shaved part of the bone came off and when you do that, it’s still stable. You can’t break it worse and you’re able to go with it, but it’s extremely painful.”

It sort of felt like we’d go a long time before seeing another tight end as good as Rob Gronkowski. And yet Kittle is replicating Gronk’s well-rounded game. And apparently, Kittle is doing it with a broken bone.

2. New Orleans Saints (9-2)

What matters most: Marshon Lattimore’s health.

D.J. Moore managed six receptions, 126 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints on Sunday. That’s because New Orleans didn’t have Lattimore and resorted to using P.J. Williams on Moore. Williams excels in the slot, but when he’s forced to cover an outside receiver, Williams looks incompetent and the entire Saints defense suffers.

3. Green Bay Packers (8-3)

What matters most: Aaron Rodgers being Aaron Rodgers (consistently).

Rodgers was back to being an unflappable MVP candidate for roughly three weeks. But in his last three games, he’s been far less impressive, with 166 passing yards per game and two total passing touchdowns over that span.

Much has been made of the Patriots’ struggles on offense, with Brady and company limping through their tough stretch. Green Bay and Rodgers are doing the exact same thing in the other conference.

4. Dallas Cowboys (6-5)

What matters most: The Jerry Jones-Jason Garrett feud.

It seems Jerry Jones is intent upon playing with his food before he eats it. Jones is setting himself up to fire Jason Garrett. That’s clearly why Jones laid into Garrett after Sunday’s loss to the Patriots, which was largely a product of Garrett’s incompetence and poor decision-making.

“With the makeup of this team, I shouldn’t be this frustrated,” Jones said after the game on Sunday, via NFL.com.

Oh, but there’s more. In the windy and rainy matchup, the Patriots blocked a punt, and toyed with Dallas’ special teams units, which are among the worst in the NFL. Jones had a few thoughts on that.

“Special teams is totally a reflection of coaching,” Jones continued. “I don’t think there’s a game that a coaching staff has … that it couldn’t do better in. I just don’t like it that we’ve got so many as I’m standing here tonight.”

Garrett deserves to get fired. We know it. Jones knows it. Why wait? Well, apparently Jones wants to take a few weeks to point fingers.

5. Seattle Seahawks (9-2)

What matters most: Russell Wilson.

It’ll probably be Wilson every week. It’s preposterous that Wilson and the Seahawks are likely to enter the playoffs as the No. 5 seed, but their Week 17 matchup against the 49ers will loom large. In the meantime, Wilson will likely continue his remarkable MVP season.

A few stats from his year: His interception percentage (.9) is the lowest in his carer. His touchdown percentage (6.8) is the second-highest in his career. His completion percentage (67.3) is his second-best. And his yards per attempt (8.3) is tied for the highest figure of his career. The 31-year-old is undoubtedly the bet quarterback in the NFL.

6. Minnesota Vikings (8-3)

What matters most: Primetime performances.

Kirk Cousins’ reputation precedes him. He’s not a winner, and he definitely can’t win when the nation is watching. And while I have been endlessly dubious of Cousins and the Vikings, they have a chance to shut me up with a Monday night matchup in Seattle (I, for one, do not think the Vikings will win.) If they come away with a victory against one of the best teams in one of the harshest environments during a primetime game, the Vikings will establish themselves as indisputable contenders.

Still in the hunt

  • Los Angeles Rams (6-4): Can Sean McVay and Jared Goff get back to dissecting defenses as a two-man team?
  • Carolina Panthers (5-6): A valiant effort against the Saints wasn’t enough and the Panthers just don’t appear to have the consistency needed to stay in this chase.

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