The Miami Dolphins’ aren’t focused on the NFL Draft — at least the ones in the locker room aren’t. Upper management, they’re most certainly keeping close tabs on the “race” for the #1 overall pick and where the Dolphins stand in that order. Miami currently sits 4th in the draft order, but with games left to play against the 2-8 New York Giants and the 0-10 Cincinnati Bengals, the Dolphins will have plenty to say about how things shake out.
Miami has done well to stay competitive despite the gutting of their roster over the course of the last nine months and is now just six weeks from the finish line and determining where the fruits of their labor will set them in the Draft order during the team’s chase for a franchise quarterback.
The Dolphins latest forecast? The 3rd overall pick, courtesy of ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). FPI uses team metrics to simulate the remaining games on each team’s schedule and forecasts wins, playoff probabilities and odds for draft positioning. The latest round of simulations after Week 11 puts Miami situated at 3-13 at the end of the year, primed for the 3rd overall pick in the NFL Draft.
Perhaps the most interesting development in the FPI simulations this week is the positioning of the Washington Redskins and the Cincinnati Bengals, who are both projected to finish the year at 2-14. Should that be the case, the Dolphins will need to actively root for Washington’s strength of schedule to tank as well.
Remember, strength of schedule (SOS) determines draft order ties, with the lower SOS being given the higher selection. As of right now, Washington’s strength of schedule sits at 0.525, while the Bengals’ sits at 0.568. If the two teams manage to tie, Washington may actually walk away with the top pick in the draft, which would open the door for Miami to trade in front of the Bengals to get their preferred choice of quarterbacks in the 2020 NFL Draft.
This is really only relevant if Miami decides they want LSU’s Joe Burrow, but the possibility being on the table is exciting none the less. So let it be written in stone: from here on out, Dolphins fans are also Bengals fans and fans of whoever is playing Washington each week.
It’s going to be a fun six weeks!
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