The Baltimore Ravens took an even stronger hold on the title of “NFL’s best offense” heading into Week 12, so the Dallas Cowboys will just have to settle for being the second-best offense in the league. Neither team moved around in this week’s EPA power rankings, but the same cannot be said for nearly every team behind them.
Expected Points, the foundation of many analytical arguments, uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.
A play with a positive EPA means it put the offense in a better position to score, while negative EPA implies the offense is in a worse position.
The Ravens took a major leap forward and are now within striking distance of San Francisco and New England. It’s been a two-team race at the top all season but Baltimore could conceivably catch San Francisco next week.
Dallas is in a tier of their own at this point, not quite with those top teams but with a strong lead above No. 4 Minnesota.
Houston fell down three spots this week, but still maintains a top five offense despite just a 7-point showing on Sunday. This might be a good time to remind the reader that these EPA numbers are not opponent-adjusted, so don’t hold it against the Texans for getting beat up on by the fast-climbing Ravens.
The Eagles fell three spots this week and dropped below the Cowboys in the race for the division. Dallas now has a 62% chance to win the NFC East, per FiveThirtyEight. Philadelphia isn’t out of the race yet, however, as their next three games are against opponents ranked 32, 29, and 30 by EPA differential.
Atlanta jumped up the most this Week, now back inside the top third of the league by EPA differential. Just three weeks ago, Atlanta had the worst defense by total EPA allowed in the NFL. Yes, even below Miami. Since Week 8, however, they’ve had the third-best defense in the NFL. They might be playing just well enough to let Dan Quinn keep his job another year.
Speaking of defense, let’s take a look at how teams fare against the pass versus the run.
We can really see that where the Patriots and 49ers have separated themselves from the pack is with their passing defense. After that we’ve got the Bills, Ravens, and ̶M̶i̶n̶k̶a̶h̶ ̶F̶i̶t̶z̶p̶a̶t̶r̶i̶c̶k̶ the Steelers. Teams in the bottom left quadrant are lacking the most on the defensive side of the ball, falling below average in both pass and rush EPA allowed. This is what could really come back to bite the Raiders in their hunt for a wild card spot.
On the other side of the ball, Baltimore’s run game appears to be everything it was advertised to be heading into the season. Simultaneously having one of the league’s best passing attacks is the big surprise for them.
Dallas’ passing offense remains one of the most effective in the league, as Dak Prescott forces his name into the MVP discussion. Their ground game, while not everything Cowboys fans might be accustomed to, is still above average.
Arizona is showing that the air raid offense can be effective in the NFL, but not in the way we’d imagine. They’ve brought last year’s offense, one of the worst in recent memory, up to nearly league average in the passing game. Their rushing game is only being outpaced by Baltimore. Opening up the box by spreading the field with four and five wide receivers is proving to be a highly underrated and under-utilized tool in creating a strong rushing attack.
Next week brings some important games among the top teams in the NFL. The Packers head to San Francisco in what is likely a battle for a playoff bye. Meanwhile the Cowboys attempt to do what the Eagles could not and take down the Patriots. In addition to the confidence in beating one of the best teams in the league, this would also give Dallas some breathing room atop the NFC East.
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