Each week is important for the Indianapolis Colts and every NFL team. The NFL isn’t like the NBA or MLB where teams play over 80 games in a season. In the NFL, all 16 games matter.
As of now, the Colts are sitting at 5-4 through 10 weeks of the season. They are 2-0 in the AFC South and are second in the division behind the Houston Texans.
Back in April when the regular-season schedule was released fans got to take a look at how the Colts’ 2019 schedule broke down. Many saw the end-of-November three-game AFC South divisional games they had in a row and thought that would be an important part of the season, and boy is that true right now.
As mentioned, the Colts are in second in the AFC South and are on the outside looking in for the AFC playoff picture. But in a matter of three weeks, everything could dramatically change.
With losses to the Raiders and Steelers earlier in the year, the Colts don’t have playoff tiebreakers with those teams, so it will be very difficult to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. The only clear and easy path is to win the division.
If the Colts want to win the division and make the playoffs, they can do that because they control their own fate. It is simple, win these next three games against AFC South rivals.
With the recent play of the Colts, it is hard to be optimistic and think the Colts will win the next three games, but according to Tankathon’s strength of schedule, the Colts have the 13th-hardest strength of schedule based upon opponent winning percentage.
Do not be fret Colts fans. If you check out that strength of schedule, the Texans and Titans are both ahead of the Colts. Houston plays notable opponents like the Ravens, Colts, Patriots and Titans twice.
Tennessee plays the Colts, Raiders, Texans twice and Saints—all teams fighting for a playoff spot. The Jaguars are 25th, but they have two matchups with the Colts starting Week 11.
Follow that up with two road trips to Tampa Bay and New Orleans, and the vitality only increases.
So if you take a look at FiveThirtyEight NFL Predictions, the Colts current sit at a 33% chance to make the playoffs, and 20% to win the division. If they were to win their next two games, (Jacksonville at home and Houston on the road), their percentages jump to 77% make the playoffs and 64% to win the division.
*Those percentages don’t factor the Texans vs. Ravens game this Sunday.*
If the Texans were to lose to the Ravens, and of course lose to the Colts next Thursday night, the Colts’ percentage chance to make the playoffs bump to 81%, and a 72% chance to win the division.
Obviously, if the Colts can take care of business over the next three games their season dramatically changes, and who knows in the NFL, they could be fighting for a No. 2 seed when December rolls around.
All of that doesn’t matter though unless the Colts can win Sunday and make the quick turnaround and beat the Texans on Thursday Night Football in Week 12.
Regardless, this upcoming three-game stretch could very well determine the fate of the Colts’ season.