I wasn’t always completely sold on Pascal Siakam as the Raptors’ number one option on offense. Before you skewer me, it was a reasonable take! It’s not that Siakam was bad, it’s just that Kawhi Leonard was SO good.
It’s rare that we see a team lose what might be the best player in the league and still compete as a contender the very next season. We’ve seen it time and again — just look at the Warriors this year after losing Kevin Durant. We can even go back to the 2014 Miami Heat after they lost LeBron James. Those teams weren’t the same — in the Heat’s case, they’re only just now looking like a legit contender again.
The Raptors don’t have that problem. Why? Because of Siakam. He’s been special this year.
Siakam is Toronto’s new Kawhi Leonard
I don’t say that facetiously. It isn’t just the role he’s stepping into — it’s also the way he’s producing for the Raptors right now. Things get really interesting when digging into the numbers.
Siakam has basically been able to mirror Leonard’s production this season.
2018-19 Kawhi:
26.6 PPG, 7.3 REB, 3.3 AST
49.6 FG%, 37.1 3PT%, 85.4 FT%2019-2020 Pascal:
27.4 PPG, 9.4 REB, 3.7 AST
49.7 FG%, 37.0 3PT%, 89.6 FT%— William Lou (@william_lou) November 11, 2019
Only two players in NBA history have averaged at least 27 points and nine rebounds per game while shooting at least 35 percent from three on 50 attempts. They are Siakam and Larry Bird. That’s pretty good company if you ask me.
Obviously, he and Bird are two very different players from two very different eras. But it doesn’t matter — anytime you can be mentioned in the same breath as a Hall of Famer you’re absolutely doing something right.
He’s gotten to this point by completely changing his shot profile. He’s gone from feasting on the corners and in transition to being more of a shot creator who shoots deeper threes.
Here’s a heat map of his shot distribution from last season. The darkest spots are where he shot most from.
Now here’s the one from this season.
Big difference, right? Those darker spots are more spread out and wide ranging.
He’s creating a lot more off the dribble and taking more funky pull-up jumpers while creating separation.
Last season, that’s a Kawhi Leonard pull up. This year, it’s Siakam’s. He isn’t as good at it yet, but it’s become a legitimate tool in his tool box. Sometimes the threat of him taking these shots is just as important as his actual ability to hit them.
He’s also still a monster on the low block. He’s big enough to punish smaller guards who switch on to him and quick enough to get around burlier bigs trying to stonewall him. He scores 1.02 points per possession in the post per NBA.com’s player tracking tool.
He’s become a complete offensive player. He’s a solid shooter, a beast at the rim, a decent shot creator and a great passer at his position. The Raptors’ future is in good hands.
What Siakam is doing is incredibly rare
Let’s get a little perspective going here. Siakam has come a LONG way.
Pascal Siakam last season: 29% of 3-point attempts came from above the he break. He shot 27% on those.
Pascal Siakam this season: 75% of 3-point attempts have come from above the break. He's shooting 42% on those.
Two seasons ago, Pascal Siakam averaged 7 points per game
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) November 14, 2019
He went from being a role player on a playoff team that could never get over the hump two years ago to the second best player on a championship team last year. Now he’s the best player on a top seed in the conference. We rarely ever see that.
No player in NBA history has won the Most Improved Player award twice in their career. When you shatter expectations once, it’s hard repeat that. Yet, somehow, Siakam is doing it again.
I doubt he actually wins the award. He’ll be an All-Star this year and that’s more than enough recognition for the time being. But I can’t think of a player more worthy right now of MIP than the man who won it last year. That’s saying a lot.