Black Monday is coming. With just over a month to go until Week 17 of the NFL season, there are more than a handful of coaches who are coaching for their jobs before the most dreaded day in the profession arrives.
After NFL teams went on a firing spree last year — mostly so they could have their pick of Sean McVay’s contact list — there aren’t too many coaches who are clearly headed for the ax. Outside of Dan Quinn in Atlanta and (maybe) Doug Marrone in Jacksonville, a lot of the coaches on the hot seat could survive.
Since it’s the holiday season, let’s be nice and try to make the case for why those coaches should keep their jobs. Just kidding, I’m going full-on Grinch and explaining why each of these teams should probably move on and start over…
1. Dan Quinn, Falcons
So much for the Falcons’ defensive turnaround. It probably wasn’t going to be enough to save Quinn’s job, anyway, but after the Bucs offense power-bombed that defense back down to earth, the clock is ticking on the Quinn era in Atlanta. The Falcons should probably just lean into the “only being good on offense” thing and try to hire someone who can maximize the talent already in place rather than finding someone who can fix the defense. Who am I kidding? We all know they’re hiring 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who is just Quinn with better personnel.
2. Doug Marrone, Jaguars
I don’t actually think Marrone is a bad coach. I just don’t know if he’s cut out for the head coaching thing, and it doesn’t help that the guy in charge of the Jaguars roster had let the game pass him by five years ago. Tom Coughlin needs to go along with Marrone if the Jaguars want any chance of producing a winning team in the next few years. But knowing this team, they’ll probably bring everyone back next year and nothing will change.
3. Matt Patricia, Lions
Patricia’s inability to get the Lions defense playing at a high level should ultimately fall on general manager Bob Quinn, but it’s been clear from the jump that the second-year coach just isn’t capable of doing this job. He tried to do his best Bill Belichick impression — something I mistakenly thought he’d avoid — and it fell flat in Detroit’s locker room. It may be harsh to give up on Patricia after only two seasons, but running it back another year would just be a waste of a season.
4. Ron Rivera, Panthers
What is the upside with retaining Rivera, again?
The Panthers defense hasn’t been the same since Sean McDermott left for Buffalo, and the defense is supposed to be Rivera’s thing. In fact, the veteran coach took a more hands-on approach this season and the defense still isn’t any good, ranking 17th in defensive DVOA going into Wee 12.
It’s not just a scheme thing either. The younger defensive players haven’t developed as the team would’ve hoped and that falls on a coach who was billed as a good developer of talent. Rivera also continues to make suboptimal in-game decisions. Some of his decisions are just downright weird, like how about using first-round pass rusher Brian Burns as a punt gunner, as Rivera did on Sunday?
My first time in life seeing my brother Brian Burns playing GUNNER on Punt WOW‼️‼️‼️ Makes the tackle on Alvin Kamara #DROY This man is special #FreeSpiderBurns🕷🔥 #LethimPlay🤬 pic.twitter.com/qJ5EvWGgkC
— Loochie🤴🏿 (@smccloverjr) November 25, 2019
Since the 15-1 season in 2015, the Panthers have been trending down and we’re going on four seasons now. It’s time for a new coach.
5. Pat Shurmur, Giants
Daniel Jones looking OK during his rookie season could save Shurmur’s job but his failure to properly utilize Saquon Barkley may negate that. After all, the Giants’ front office made a bigger investment in the running back. The offense as a whole has been a disappointment. And it’s not like the cupboard is bare. New York has some good young pieces to work with on offense; now they just need a coach who can get the most out of them. If it was Shurmur, we’d have seen it by now.
6. Jason Garrett, Cowboys
Garrett is really forcing Jerry Jones’ hand on this one. The decision to kick a field goal with the Cowboys trailing by a touchdown late in the fourth quarter of a rain-soaked game against the best defense in the NFL was horrid, of course, but that wasn’t a one-off decision. This is who Garrett is as a coach. He’s naturally timid and that just doesn’t work in today’s NFL now that teams have analytical departments and are actually starting to listen to them.
As bad as the decision to kick was, his explanation afterward may have been worse…
Jason Garrett, when asked by @1053thefan if he uses win probability stats to help make decisions:
“We don’t use those stats within the game”
In an era where coaches are advised real-time by analytics assistants, the Cowboys prefer to find out what they did wrong afterwards. pic.twitter.com/4mTm35cvXv
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) November 25, 2019
Kellen Moore coordinating the NFL’s best offense and possibly being up for a head coaching gig as soon as next year could make it awfully difficult for Jones to keep Garrett around for another season.
7. Adam Gase, Jets
Looking at the Jets’ schedule, there’s a real possibility that this team finishes 8-8. In fact, if I were in the Jets front office, I would set the goal at 7-9 and if Gase didn’t hit it, we’d move on. Remember: The current GM, Joe Douglas, did not hire Gase and with Sam Darnold’s rookie deal nearly halfway up, the Jets some sense of urgency. Do they really want to waste his cheap years on a coach whose biggest accomplishment might be getting one not-so-mediocre season out of Jay Cutler? He gets no credit for pretending to be Peyton Manning’s play-caller. Are we even sure his headset was plugged in? That’s a serious question.
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