The San Francisco 49ers stomped the Green Bay Packers on Nov. 24, using a smothering defensive effort and big plays from Kyle Shanahan’s offense to produce a 37-8 blowout at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
The Packers and 49ers will meet again Sunday in the NFC Championship Game, with a trip to Super Bowl LIV on the line this time.
Here are six reasons why the rematch could play out differently for the Packers:
1. Right tackle recovery: Veteran right tackle Bryan Bulaga lasted only nine snaps in the first meeting before exiting with an injury. He was replaced by Alex Light, who was overwhelmed and overmatched by Nick Bosa and the 49ers pass rush. Bulaga is back and healthy, despite missing last week with an illness, and instead of Light as his top backup, the Packers have veteran Jared Veldheer, who played important snaps at right tackle both last week against the Seahawks and in Week 17 in Detroit. The offensive line is in much better shape to combat the 49ers’ all-star front, even if Bulaga doesn’t make it through the entire contest. Also, don’t underestimate how much losing Bulaga hurt the plan the rest of the way six weeks ago. The Packers had to adjust when Light entered the game. The full menu is available for Matt LaFleur with Bulaga back and Veldheer behind him.
2. Red-hot Davante: Back in November, Davante Adams was less than a month removed from returning from a debilitating turf toe injury. He finished with 43 receiving yards on 12 targets. Ouch. On Sunday, he’ll arrive in San Francisco fresh off one of the best four-game stretches of his NFL career. In games against the Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks, Adams caught 35 passes for 472 yards and four touchdowns. He’s red-hot. Aaron Rodgers is flooding him with targets and Matt LaFleur has found better ways of moving him around, keeping him involved and finding him big plays. His performance Sunday against the Seahawks will live on as one of the best receiving games in Packers playoff history. The 49ers may have to allocate extra resources to keep Adams from going off again. He has four straight games with at least seven catches and 90 or more yards, with three 100-yard games.
3. Better plan: Davante Adams said it with some confidence Wednesday: The Packers have a better plan for attacking the 49ers defense this time around. It can’t get much worse than the plan from Nov. 24, so the room for improvement is obvious. The 49ers are great defensively, but they’re not impregnable, and teams have found success by moving the quarterback out of the pocket, sticking with the run, using pre-snap motion and finding pockets of space in the coverage when the pass-rush is slowed. It will take a great plan and near-flawless execution for the Packers to get it done, but Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers clearly made good use of the bye week. The offense hummed for much of the game against the Seahawks, with LaFleur dialing up effective concepts and Rodgers playing decisively and throwing on time. This offense might be heading in the right direction at exactly the right time.
4. Right mix on defense: The Packers are playing like a defense capable of causing the 49ers a few problems on Sunday. Not only are they stopping the run better, but they’re creating consistent pressure on obvious passing downs and producing takeaway opportunities. That might be the blueprint for Sunday: Make the 49ers more one-dimensional (see: stop the run), collapse the pocket around Jimmy Garoppolo during high-leverage situations and use the disruption to create turnovers. Garoppolo goes blind once or twice a game and will throw a ball into coverage. The Packers must convert those into takeaways. And keep this in mind: The 49ers are 26th in the NFL in pass-block win rate this season. Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith and Kenny Clark can make life really difficult on Garoppolo if the 49ers can’t stay balanced. Keep an eye on the interior. The Packers have a pass-rushing advantage there.
5. Simple execution: The Packers turned it over on the first series, handing the 49ers seven points. A drive later, Geronimo Allison dropped a pass on third down. On the first drive of the second quarter, the Packers got stopped on 4th-and-1 inside 49ers territory. A drive later, Jimmy Graham dropped a deep ball on third down. A three-play, 61-yard scoring drive by the 49ers to end the first half followed a quick three-and-out by the Packers offense. Just like that, it’s 20-0. If the Packers execute at this level again, they’ll get blown out again. But it’s hard to envision a team that has won six straight games playing so poorly for so long to start the game again on Sunday. The game script is almost certainly going to be different this time. Unless the Packers lay an egg in the first half again, they’ll be right in it late – and Matt LaFleur’s team has found countless ways to get it done late in games this season.
6. Fewer mental mistakes: Aaron Rodgers pinpointed a greater mental focus and fewer mental mistakes as big reasons for the Packers’ six-game win streak since the Nov. 24 blowout. Both sides of the ball have benefitted from the changes to weekly prep made by Matt LaFleur. The offense has suffered through fewer “busts,” possibly due to a simpler install week to week, while the defense is communicating better across the board and allowing fewer big plays. The Packers can’t afford too many mental mistakes in San Francisco on Sunday. Another factor: the Packers don’t feel like the team under the most pressure. That’ll be the 49ers, who are big favorites to win at home after beating up on the Packers six weeks ago. Rodgers wants his team to play “nice and loose” as the underdog.