As the 2024 NBA offseason nears, one of the top storylines to watch unfold will be what multi-time All-Star Paul George does. He has a chance to enter free agency if he declines his $48.8 million player option next season. Regardless if he intends to stay with the LA Clippers, he will likely decline it anyway to get one last massive contract.
Once that formality becomes official, expect George to be the biggest free agent. He’ll be courted by several contenders and has already been linked to the Philadelphia 76ers. They’re seen as the biggest threat to pry the 34-year-old away from LA.
But considering the Oklahoma City Thunder’s situation — they have $35 million in cap space and a ridiculous amount of draft capital — they’re seen as a sleeping giant. They are fresh off a first-seed finish and made it to the second round as one of the youngest squads in league history.
The trio of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams sets OKC up to have several bites at the apple to to win a championship. Expect deep playoff runs to be a yearly event for the Thunder for the foreseeable future. They enter the offseason in an unprecedented situation where they can make a serious upgrade if they choose to do so.
If the Thunder go star hunting, George is the perfect fit for the Thunder. He’s an elite two-way wing that fixes most of OKC’s woes. He’s an elite high-volume outside shooter who’s one of the best bucket-getters in the league. He can seamlessly fit in both as the top scorer when he’s hot and the best second-fourth scoring option on other nights.
On defense, the resume speaks for itself. George is a four-time All-Defensive member. He’s an upper-echelon perimeter defender and one of the best defensive players of his era. He still has his fastball despite the amount of miles on his tires. He will give OKC another elite POA defender and opposing guards/wings will struggle to go off on the Thunder.
It’s a long shot to happen, but let’s discuss the fun hypothetical of a Thunder and George reunion. Here are five reasons why OKC should go against its grain and pursue the future Hall-of-Famer as he’ll make it the instant title favorite for the next couple of seasons:
George is the quintessential perfect player to add to any of the 30 teams in the league. He can fit in any role and is a low-maintenance superstar. He’s a true two-way player who can contribute on a high-end on both sides of the floor. He fits like a glove on any squad and can still be a leading scorer any night during the season.
The self-creation is special for George. He’s one of the best ball-handling wings and has one of the smoothest dribble packages. He was a 73rd-percentile isolation scorer and a 94.5-percentile pick-and-roll handler this past season. He can still get a bucket when needed. At 6-foot-8, 220 pounds, he’s borderline unstoppable when he gains a rhythm.
The 34-year-old is also an elite outside option. He shot 41.3% from 3 on 7.9 attempts last season. He’s one of the best 3-point shooting forwards in the league since his arrival. The high volume and high efficiency are valuable skills. He can create off-the-dribble and projects to be a top-tier catch-and-shoot option.
A 5-out offense fits George’s strengths. When he isn’t breaking down the defense, he’ll get plenty of looks from outside as defenses collapse when Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams drive to the basket. It would be a pick-your-own-poison type of offense in OKC that would have most defenses’ heads on a swivel.
George fills a lot of the holes the Thunder had last season. He’d be a starter and will likely range between OKC’s second-best to fourth-best player regularly. He provides them with another elite scorer who can create his own looks while seamlessly fitting into an off-ball role when needed. The perimeter defense will strengthen a top-five defense. He has great size and can guard any position. He’ll arguably be OKC’s best POA defender. A trio of himself, Lu Dort and Cason Wallace gives the Thunder the best perimeter defense in the league.
This is no slight against George, but he’d be the best 3-and-D starter in the league. He’d benefit from less scoring responsibility and can spend more energy on defense without worrying about overworking himself on the offensive side.
The timeline of a team is what matters most for a contender. The best players on a squad must have their primes aligned. If George joined OKC, his gradual decline would match up perfectly with the ascensions of Williams and Holmgren. Gilgeous-Alexander will be a mainstay as one of the best players for the foreseeable future.
Depending on the length of the deal, George could be the perfect veteran piece to add to the Thunder. He’ll be an immediate top option who can slowly descend into a high-end starter as his game gracefully ages. Similar to the Ninja Turtles with Master Splinter meme, it’ll be a natural passing of the torch to Williams and Holmgren as they come into their own.
The 34-year-old relies more on skill and finesse than pure athleticism. There will be no worries or a sharp decline that turns him into a bloated salary and one of the worst deals in the league. Less of an offensive load could also help lengthen his prime. It will be less physically taxing and the Thunder can slowplay his regular season as they will most need him in the playoffs.
Imagine a line graph where George’s x-axis slowly declines while OKC’s trio’s slowly increases. That’s the perfect and most probable scenario when looking at this hypothetical from an analytic point of view.
The Thunder will never be massive free-agency bettors. The small-market franchise doesn’t possess the same appeal as large-market squads with a rich history and brand recognition. But a potential George addition holds unique circumstances.
The nine-time All-Star has already played in OKC. He spent two seasons with the Thunder from 2017-19 where he enjoyed a career year and finished third in MVP in 2019. He was then shipped to the Clippers after he requested a trade. The rest was history as now a second marriage makes sense for both sides five years later.
When the Thunder pursues a free agent, they must get creative with their pitch considering the inherent disadvantages they are already working against. In this specific scenario, familiarity might give OKC an edge that other teams sans LA don’t have.
The Thunder can walk into a pitch and remind George they have shared history. He already knows what to expect. For the most part, it’s the same front office and coaching staff. Sam Presti is still calling the shots. Mark Daigneault was the G League’s OKC Blue head coach in George’s two seasons, so there’s some sense of the known there.
It will be an easier time to convince George how the Thunder’s culture overcomes being in a small market considering he’s seen it firsthand. He will know how it makes the most basketball sense. He will know how it can maximize his odds of winning a championship. He will know how it’s the best move for the next phase of his career. He’s already been in the building before and can attest to the accuracy of these rhetorics.
Besides struggling with health, playoff struggles have been George’s biggest criticism. He has a history of becoming passive in the postseason and see his scoring drop. This has resulted in the Clippers’ title aspirations to fall short in his five seasons in LA. This also leaked over to his tenures with the Indiana Pacers and Thunder. OKC failed to win a playoff series in George’s two trips. It eventually led to being in one of the worst situations in the league before OKC was bailed out by the Clippers.
In his second stint with the Thunder, he wouldn’t bear the same responsibilities. Since his ascension into one of the best players, George has been expected to be the best or second-best player on every team he’s been on. That wouldn’t be the expectation in OKC. His usage rate and minutes will likely decrease with the Thunder. He’d be asked to be a top scorer, but the result of a playoff series won’t lay on his shoulders.
The trickle-down effects of that role shift will likely help George stay healthy too. It’s a bonus as the 34-year-old has been plagued with injuries for most of his career. By the time the playoffs roll around, he’s covered in ice and tape like a mummy when he’s not battling it out on the court. That won’t longer be the case in OKC. He can enjoy being on a lesser offensive load that should help him stay healthy and the Thunder are deep enough to afford resting him when needed.
Gilgeous-Alexander is the undisputable best player on the Thunder and a top-five player. Williams has grown into their second-best scorer. Holmgren has room to grow as a scorer and one of the best defensive players in the league already. If the latter two continue to develop at the trajectory they’ve shown, George will simply be asked to fill the scoring holes. He’d go from a two-man show to playing drums for a band.
This might be the sticking point for this dream scenario to materialize. This will be George’s last shot to receive one last massive payday. He’s shown signs of decline this past season and at 34 years old, those will likely continue. He’s at that sweet spot where he’s still one of the best players in the league but it’s clear that’ll only be the case for a couple more seasons at best.
This means contenders who will be more urgent to compete next season as their title windows slowly close might outbid the Thunder. George will seek a four-year, $200-plus million this offseason. Both the Clippers and Sixers have been heavily linked to him and it’s easy to see why. LA has an old and expensive roster it must commit to since its future draft picks are owed to OKC. Philly is in a similar situation — albeit not as bleak — with Joel Embiid, who is 30 years old and only under team control for two more seasons.
Both squads must have George to increase their odds. They must operate as a squad that’s willing to overpay now and worry about the financial repercussions later. If not, their situations could turn apocalyptic. On the flip side, if the Thunder miss out on the multi-time All-NBA forward, then oh well, it’ll be business as usual for them as they smashed open a title window this past season and have a longer runway to work with.
But with that said, if George wants to win a championship, could he be willing to shorten his next deal for those aspirations? A two-year deal with an option for a third year is likely the best-case scenario for a Thunder and George reunion. OKC has ample cap space to spend these next two seasons before the extensions of Holmgren and Williams kick in. It’d be smart to take advantage of that before this team gets very expensive, very soon.
As mentioned, the Thunder possesses $35 million in cap space this offseason. They will likely need to free up an additional $15 million to absorb George’s future salaries — which will be around $50 million per season. They can do that by completing a sign-and-trade with the Clippers if he elects to pick up his $48.8 million player option and sign a one-plus-one deal with OKC to essentially make it a two-plus-one contract. The Thunder have the salaries to total that pretty easily with some of their role players and young prospects. One has to assume LA would be open to this as the alternative would be losing George for nothing — although with that said, a James Harden extension might throw a wrench in this plan. Perhaps LA prefers the cap space to tool around Harden and Kawhi Leonard.
It’s a long, convoluted process but if winning a ring is truly George’s top priority, leaning the Thunder over the Clippers or Sixers is his best bet. Going to OKC will take extra steps and will require leaving money on the table, but the differences are incremental enough that it might be worth it. He only has a limited amount of shots left to win a title as a top player. The Thunder provides him with the best shot to turn that into a reality.