Is the depth versatile to defend Houston?
The Oklahoma City Thunder realistically have at least 10 players who could suit up against the Houston Rockets.
- Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dennis Schroder, Danilo Gallinari will be relied upon
- Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel can either dominate the post or their impact will be negated by the Rockets’ style
- Terrance Ferguson, Hamidou Diallo, Darius Bazley will get time off the bench
- What will be the availability of Lu Dort and Andre Roberson?
- Will Abdel Nader or Mike Muscala find time off the bench?
The switchability of Oklahoma City makes them a competitive matchup for Houston. Several players can take the Harden matchup when needed — if Dort is out, expect it to be Ferguson more often than not — and pretty much any wing can guard any Rockets rotation player.
The way Houston spreads the floor without regard to true positioning will not harm the Thunder as it would a team like the Utah Jazz or Denver Nuggets, both of whom rely on dominant centers.
Bazley has had time at the 5 while in the bubble, and it actually allowed him to extend his range and offensive allowances. He’s capable of defending P.J. Tucker and Robert Covington, the two Rockets “bigs.”
Diallo, with his long wingspan, is also switchable around the lineup. Gallinari can slide up to center.
If head coach Billy Donovan is confident enough in Roberson’s conditioning post-injury, he can guard anyone from Russell Westbrook at the 1 to whoever is at the 5, and Lu Dort likely would be able to as well if is knee recovers in time.
Where that leaves Adams and Noel is unclear. Will they be useful or cast aside?
What role will Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel play?
Oklahoma City, and particularly Chris Paul, loves the pick-and-roll game.
It’s what made Noel one of the leaders in alley-oop finishes this year, and those could realistically increase against the shorter Rockets team.
Similarly with Adams. When in the post or running pick-and-rolls, he should have a clear line of vision around the floor.
P.J. Tucker is one of the strongest players in the league, so it’s not like Adams will be posting up against a typical 6-foot-5 player, but he can use his passing to find open players, too.
Donovan didn’t express concern about the drastically contrasting styles of the two teams’ offenses: Houston loves 3s, the Thunder take a lot of 2s. The Rockets are actually often willing to give up 2s.
That could turn out two ways. One, Oklahoma City could be highly efficient and wait for a Houston slump.
Two, the Thunder make a normal amount of 2s while Houston storms out of the 3-point line. If that is the case, and Oklahoma City falls behind, and Adams and Noel may not be able to defend the wings — though both of them do move better than traditional centers.
The best-case scenario is that the two of them dominate the paint.
The worst-case scenario is that neither are able to stay on the floor, and the Thunder have to rely on players like Gallinari, Bazley and perhaps Roberson to play the 5.
That would also throw a wrench into that league-best five-man lineup with the three guards, Gallinari and Adams.
Can clutch play continue to succeed?
The Thunder had the best net rating in the league in games that had a score within five points with five minutes or less to go in the fourth quarter. This helped them go 30-15 in such games.
Much of that had to do with the three guards, which does stack up against the Rockets.
But if Donovan decides Adams isn’t the best way to go, and Gallinari slips up to the 5, who would fit into that group?
Was Bazley’s surge over the final few bubble games legitimate enough to trust with playoff minutes? Is Mike Muscala proficient enough on defense that his spreading the court on offense an option?
Could the Thunder roll with a four-guard unit if they so choose?
How many guards will the Thunder put on the court at one time?
Paul, Gilgeous-Alexander and Schroder is the best three-man unit in the league.
Against the smaller Rockets team that loves the 3, could Oklahoma City get even more guards out there?
Some of that does depend on the status of Dort and confidence in Roberson, but Ferguson and Diallo are also listed as guards.
If the Rockets are taking advantage of Adams, would Ferguson slide into the closing lineup? Is there a time Donovan would even think to go five?
That’s one of the really, really intriguing things about this series. Both teams have such unique rotations that, if coaches want, it doesn’t have to be a ball handler-wing-big rotation that the modern NBA employees.
It truly could be a series that styles of both teams would look abstract to basketball even 10 to 20 years ago.
How will injuries play a role in the series?
The other most fascinating part of this series, obviously, is Westbrook and Paul facing off against their prior teams.
But Westbrook is expected to miss at least two games. That’s sad for NBA fans who wanted the series to be as dramatic as possible — and, likely, Thunder fans who have wanted this matchup — but the absence of the star is certainly helpful for Oklahoma City.
Dort’s status is still up in the air. Losing him doesn’t hurt the Thunder as much as Westbrook does the Rockets, but his defense has been vital for Oklahoma City this season and he would be expected to see quite a bit of time on James Harden.
Roberson is healthy, but his conditioning isn’t what it used to be. Additionally, he hasn’t been part of the rotation all season like the rest of his teammates. Donovan still must decide how and if to utilize him.
Finally, is Schroder ready to play? That’s not an injury, but after leaving the bubble and only getting to play in one game upon his return, the Thunder must get their corps pieces in sync.
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