The Green Bay Packers will welcome the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers to Lambeau Field for a pivotal battle in the NFC playoff race in Week 12. The Packers, now 7-3 after surviving at Soldier Field last week, have a chance to deliver something close to the kill shot on the 49ers, who are 5-5 and coming off a home loss to the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday.
The Packers can put themselves in “near lock” territory for the postseason with a win over the 49ers while also dealing a devastating setback to the team that sent them home in dramatic fashion last January.
Here are five keys to the Packers beating the 49ers in Week 12:
Reed vs. Lenoir
Geno Smith and the Seahawks had success in the passing game targeting slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who caught 10 passes in last week’s win, including a couple on the game-winning drive. Can the Packers get Jayden Reed going this week? Deommodore Lenoir is the 49ers primary slot defender, and he’s a good one overall. The 49ers have only allowed one touchdown pass on targets to the slot this season, in large part because of Lenoir’s coverage, so Reed — a top playmaker for the Packers — will be challenged Sunday. Don’t be surprised if the Packers attempt to get him a few shots down the field. As always, explosive plays will need to power the offense.
Defending extended plays
The Packers defense needs to be ready to play plaster coverage and defend against quarterback scrambles on Sunday — assuming Brock Purdy can play through a shoulder injury. Purdy is holding the ball past 2.5 seconds on almost 62 percent of his dropbacks this season, one of the highest rates among quarterbacks, and his 37 scramble attempts rank second among quarterbacks overall. Purdy is averaging 9.6 yards per attempt on extended plays and is dangerous as a scrambler, but he’s also thrown all eight of his interceptions while holding the ball past 2.5 seconds. Can the Packers shut down his scrambling and force a mistake or two on Sunday?
Protect Love
Nick Bosa might not play while dealing with hip and oblique injuries, and the 49ers pass-rush becomes one of the worst in football when he’s not on the field. The 49ers are also without Javon Hargrave, a top interior disruptor. This could be an opportunity for Jordan Love to consistently play from clean pockets. Love looked improved dealing with pressure last week, likely due to having two healthy legs, but the Packers want him playing on time from the pocket. The passing game will feel good about the matchups available downfield if Love is consistently protected on Sunday. On the other side, the Packers had success pressuring Purdy from the interior last January.
Win the turnover battle
The 49ers have 16 takeaways, including 11 interceptions (from nine different defenders), so it might be difficult for Jordan Love to snap his interception streak on Sunday. But winning the turnover battle — and avoiding giveaways — will be huge. The 49ers are 1-3 when producing one or zero takeaways this season. They are also 1-3 when turning the ball over multiple times. Winning the ball at home has to be a top priority. After losing the turnover battle in losses to the Vikings and Lions at home, the Packers need to prove they can protect the ball against a contender on Sunday at Lambeau Field.
Red zone
The red-zone winner might end up being the winner Sunday. Both of these offenses are struggling to get the ball in the end zone from inside the 20. The Packers are 19-for-39 scoring touchdowns in the red zone (48.7 percent); the 49ers are 20-for-41 (48.8 percent). Neither defense is particularly dominant inside the 20, so this is an opportunity for one (or both) offenses to get back on track in the scoring area. The Packers desperately need to show some consistency in the red zone after blowing two more scoring opportunities — with an interception and turnover on downs — last week. Moving the ball hasn’t been an issue and probably won’t be an issue Sunday. Now it’s time to start heating up inside the 20.