1. Tampa Bay at Washington
LINE: Point Total 45
ATS PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
The NFL Playoffs are obviously a whole different animal, and the perception is that defenses normally rule – if you’re picking one way or another – as teams tighten up, don’t take as many chances, and play to try to get through to the fourth quarter when it’s really on.
There’s also the theory that games are generally going to be closer in a good team vs. good team sort of way, but in this we have the all-timer of an anomaly.
We have a team that’s a let’s-just-say-curious coaching decision by Philadelphia away from probably ceding this spot to the Giants – oh, Nate Sudfeld, bless your heart. Washington has a losing record, and it’s the rare massive home playing underdog to a Tampa Bay team that’s rolling into the tournament.
– CFN Expert Picks: NFL Wild Card Weekend
All you care about here is the under, and that’s where Washington helps you out in every possible way.
Start with an offense that doesn’t really score. It’s 30th in the NFL in total yards and 25th in points per game – it hasn’t scored more than 23 in five wins and only got over 27 once all season.
But the 45 is still a relatively reasonable number to hit, right?
No Washington game has come even close to getting there over the last five games and only two in the last 12 games. And why?
But the Football Team’s defense can ball.
Chase Young and the pass rush are great, the pass defense is fantastic, and the WFT D hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in its last seven games. This is the second-best defense in all of the NFL.
Tampa Bay’s isn’t No. 1 overall, but it’s the best in the league against the run, and Washington’s passing game is an issue.
Again, the Washington offense isn’t anything amazing, and now it goes against a Buccaneer defense that hasn’t allowed more than 27 points in any of the last six games or in 11 of the last 12.
The worry here is Tom. Brady and the offense went off with 91 combined points over the last two weeks, but Atlanta and Detroit don’t play a lick of D.
Like Washington, love the defense, love the lack of an O, like the under.