1. Florida at Florida State
LINE Florida State -9.5
ATS PICK Florida
Two huge warnings before diving in. 1) This was my “go with your first answer” pick. When this first came out I thought it was a misprint, so I sure might be missing something obvious, and 2) Florida is mega-flaky.
Here’s my biggest issue with the spread being so high – it’s not like Florida State has ripped through a slew of killers.
The College Football Playoff committee is certainly loving on the Noles, but this four-game winning streak came against Georgia Tech at home, on the road against a weak Miami, on the road against a decimated Syracuse – at least in some areas – and at home against Louisiana from the Sun Belt.
It lost to Wake Forest by ten, lost at NC State, lost to Clemson. Yeah, it’s the team that beat LSU, but that was just as the season got started and it took a minor miracle to hang on for dear life.
I’m not saying Florida State is bad – far from it – but that’s a big, big spread against team with Florida’s firepower.
Can the Gator D come up with a third down stop again the FSU running game? Probably not. Can the Gator O sputter and cough too much like it did in the weird 31-24 loss at Vanderbilt last week? Absolutely.
Does Florida have the ability to rise up and rip the roof off Florida State like it did in the 38-6 win over South Carolina? Yeah.
+285 on the Moneyline isn’t totally insane if you lean Gator – I think FSU wins – but it’s Rivalry Week. Giving up 9.5 is too much.
And if it’s not, I’ll be right here to take my lumps as I return tomorrow for the 5 Best Predictions Against the Spread for the Saturday games.
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