3. San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs North Carolina
Wednesday, December 28, 8:00 FOX
POINT TOTAL 75
Pick Under
There’s a bunch to unpack here.
Usually when I make the final call for the game picks in the previews, I pick the final score, lock it in, don’t look at the line until after, and don’t change it unless it’s right on the line or unless something wacky happens – like weather, injury, etc.
My original thought was that this would be a wild shootout.
Both Oregon and North Carolina have their star quarterbacks who are coming back next year – Drake Maye for North Carolina and Bo Nix for Oregon – and both defenses are losing key guys and/or were putrid to begin with.
However …
1) If you’ve been with me for the last 25 years, you know my rule – if the world gives you a college football total of 70 or over, you take the under, say thank you, and move on no matter what. It’s really, really hard to push past a point total of 70 or more.
2) These bowl games – in general – have been low scoring and brutally ragged. All of the missing parts matter.
3) No Josh Downs for North Carolina. Drake Maye doesn’t have his top receiver, Oregon is missing a whole lot of offensive depth, and …
4) I know, be careful here. Oregon is losing a ton of defensive talent, and North Carolina’s defense that can’t afford any defections basically lost almost anyone who can play. There’s a chance both offenses will look like they’re throwing against defenses with eight guys on the field.
After all of that, I’m a little spooked that both teams don’t have their offensive coordinators – North Carolina’s Phil Longo is off to Wisconsin and Oregon’s Kenny Dillingham is the new Arizona State head coach – and again, these games aren’t quite the offensive shows they should be.
Again, if it goes over, enjoy the show and move on. Short memory, because there’s more bowl work to do …
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