3. Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs Kansas State
Saturday, December 31, 2022, 12:00 ET, ESPN
ATS Line Alabama -6.5
Pick Alabama
Three warnings before the riff.
1) As several Kansas State fans keep pointing out, I don’t exactly have the best of track records when it comes to the Wildcats this year. I’m a talent snob who too often underestimated just how rock-solid this team is.
2) Yes, again, I am a talent snob. I’ll never argue too much against anyone who wants to pick Georgia, or Ohio State, or Alabama for anything. With that said, I’m well aware that …
3) This isn’t one of Nick Saban’s dominant teams – at least at an all-time level – and I do have concerns that the NFL guys who are all supposed to play get yanked out as soon and humanly possible.
But again, no one’s going to blame you for picking Bama.
Since the 2013 seasons, Nick Saban has lost four bowl games. Three were College Football Playoff National Championships, and one was a College Football Playoff semifinal.
From the 2009 season on, Saban has won 14 bowl games. That’s 14 in 13 years, and remember, he lost a few in that span, too. How many of those 14 wins in 13 years were won by more than a touchdown?
13. The one that wasn’t was a 26-23 victory, but Saban can be forgiven for that one. It was just the overtime win over Georgia for the 2017 national title.
Out of those 13 wins, no one else came closer the 11, and even then it was Kyler Murray and a high-powered Oklahoma team that put on some points late in the 2018 CFP Orange Bowl.
Until proven otherwise, I’m fine with giving away less than a touchdown.