The 49ers were, for a better part of the 2019 season, the best team in the NFL. They lost only three games all year by a combined a combined 13 points, which would’ve been 7 if not for a Falcons last-second touchdown on a fumble return on the 49ers’ last-gasp attempt at laterals at the end of the game. Still, despite a dominant season where they finished with the No. 2 scoring offense and No. 8 scoring defense, the 49ers find themselves underdogs heading into Super Bowl LIV.
Sports betting site BetMGM has San Francisco as 1.5-point underdogs in the week leading up to the game. That’s been about the same number everywhere give or take a half point, but there’s a chance we see significant movement closer to the game when more public money comes in.
Ultimately a 1.5-point line in a Super Bowl is extremely low, and effectively means the teams are equal. Sports books have to set a line that’ll garner equal money on both sides.
So why are the Chiefs giving a point?
A lot of it likely has to do with the narratives surrounding each team. For example, while the Chiefs have been putting on a show with offensive fireworks in their first two playoff wins, including 51 points in a 24-point comeback over the Texans in the divisional round, the 49ers have been battering teams with a heavy dose of their run game. While highly effective, 5.3 yards per carry doesn’t quite capture the public’s attention the way the high-flying, pass-happy Chiefs offense does.
There’s also the importance of quarterback play in the NFL vs. the importance of defense. The adage goes, “defense wins championships,” but strong defenses never quite get the same recognition a dominant quarterback gets.
Garoppolo has thrown 27 times in the playoffs, including just eight times in the NFC championship game, while the 49ers’ defense has suffocated both the Vikings and Packers. Meanwhile, Mahomes has been lighting up the scoreboard with over 600 passing yards and nine total touchdowns in two games. The discrepancy between the two signal callers on the biggest stage of the year surely weighs heavily on the minds of potential bettors who do most of their wagering on the Super Bowl.
The good news for the 49ers is that underdogs have had a lot of success in recent years. In the last seven Super Bowls, the underdogs have won five of them outright according to Fox Sports’ Todd Fuhrman.
Even more good news for the 49ers is that they’ve been underestimated all year despite a dominant regular season. Now they’re healthy going into the biggest game of the year, and chances are they’ll wear the ‘underdog’ label they’ve shed consistently all season.