The 49ers fell to the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoff picture following their 29-22 loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium. The loss dropped the 49ers to 11-3 on the season, and the Seahawks’ earlier win over the Panthers moved them to 11-3. Seattle holds the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to their win over the 49ers in Week 10, so they jumped to the top of the NFC West.
Dropping to the fifth seed does not matter for the 49ers due to the fact the season is 17 weeks long.
Despite the loss to the Falcons, the 49ers can still win the division and take the NFC’s No. 1 seed if they beat the Rams in Week 16 and then the Seahawks in Week 17. There are no additional complications. Two wins to close the year is a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Even with a loss to the Rams in Week 16, the 49ers would still be in a position to win the division with a victory over the Seahawks in Week 17.
If Seattle beats the Cardinals in Week 16 and enters Week 17 at 12-3, and the 49ers go in at 11-4, a San Francisco win puts both teams at 12-4.
The tiebreakers would shake down to the fifth tiebreak – strength of victory.
Their wins over the same teams all cancel each other out, so all that matters are their victories over uncommon opponents.
The 49ers have the Saints, Packers and Washington: 25-17 combined.
The Seahawks have the Falcons, Vikings and Eagles: 22-20 combined.
San Francisco’s group of three is on pace to finish with a better record, thus giving the 49ers the advantage in that tiebreaker. Wins by the Cowboys and Packers in Week 16 would clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker for San Francisco.
An important note for why the 49ers may want to avoid losing to the Rams is that puts them in a position to lose out on a first-round bye, which they desperately need given their injury situation. Finishing 12-4 could mean finishing behind the Packers and Saints, who could both finish 13-3.
Fortunately for San Francisco, they hold head-to-head tiebreakers over both teams.
The 49ers’ loss to the Falcons was bad, but the world has hardly ended for them. Their fate is still in their own hands, all they have to do is bounce back with wins over their final two weeks.