The 49ers’ lead in the NFC West, and in the NFC, is suddenly in jeopardy following the team’s 20-17 loss to the Ravens on Sunday in Baltimore.
San Francisco still sits at 10-2, which would typically be enough for a division lead and a top-two spot in the NFC. However, the Seattle Seahawks are lingering just behind the 49ers at 9-2 with a home game vs. the Vikings on Monday night.
A win for Seattle would put them in a tie for the NFC West lead with San Francisco. Since the Seahawks won the Week 10 matchup between the two clubs, they’d hold the tiebreaker and thus leapfrog to the No. 2 seed behind the Saints. New Orleans owns the head-to-head tiebreaker in that scenario.
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Since the NFL playoff structure gives the top four seeds to division winners, and the two wild card spots to the two best non-division winners, a Seahawks win Monday night would push the 49ers all the way to the No. 5 seed. San Francisco would then be in position to play on the road on wild card weekend rather than at home in the divisional round after a first-round bye.
On the other hand, a Seahawks loss would keep the 49ers sitting atop the NFC West and the NFC even after their loss to the Ravens.
The No. 1 seed still belongs to the 49ers immediately following Sunday’s game. Their tiebreaker with New Orleans comes down to in-conference record. San Francisco holds a one-game advantage there since one of their two losses came to an AFC club (Baltimore). Both of New Orleans’ losses came at the hands of NFC opponents (Atlanta and the Los Angeles Rams).
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The 49ers visit the Saints next week in what would be a battle for the No. 1 seed in the NFC if Seattle loses to Minnesota. Should Seattle beat Minnesota, the 49ers would suddenly be in a spot where winning out may be necessary to securing a first-round bye.
Sunday’s game in Baltimore was important for the 49ers, but the loss makes Monday night’s game between the Seahawks and Vikings the most important game of the year for San Francisco.