More and more, the 2019 Green Bay Packers look like a mirror image of the 2015 Green Bay Packers.
The 2015 Packers started fast but eventually had their fatal flaws exposed, handcuffing a 10-6 team that limped into the playoffs and got beat in the Divisional Round.
That flawed football team scared no one in the passing game, even with Aaron Rodgers under center, and good quarterbacks routinely chewed up Dom Capers’ defense.
Matt LaFleur’s team is slowly but surely blazing a similar path.
For the second time in a month, the Packers went to the West Coast and got blown out. The San Francisco 49ers provided the latest lashing in a 37-8 beat down on Sunday night in Santa Clara. But the location of the games wasn’t the problem either time. It was the matchup.
The Los Angeles Chargers drew up the blueprint on Nov. 3, and the 49ers executed it perfectly Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium. Both teams attacked the Packers’ two primary flaws: The lack of a second target in the passing game and the defense’s inability to cover the middle of the field.
Beating the Packers offense looks more and more simple, especially for teams with good pass-rushing players. Rush four, cover consistently with seven and lean the coverage towards Davante Adams. It’s an effective strategy against any modern offense. The Packers just don’t have another receiver or tight end who can consistently get open or threaten single coverage in the passing game, especially when the defense can commit to flooding areas downfield.
On Sunday night, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, Geronimo Allison and Jake Kumerow combined for four catches and 23 yards on 10 targets. Jimmy Graham caught one pass for seven yards.
The Packers got beat up front a lot, especially after losing Bryan Bulaga in the first half. But Rodgers dropped back to pass 41 times and rarely had an open receiver in the progression, at least based on the way he continually held the football even when the blocking held up.
The Packers have gotten by without a legitimate No. 2 receiver, but the lack of a secondary playmaker really showed up in Los Angeles on Nov. 3 and in San Francisco on Sunday night. Teams, if capable, will copy the blueprint, and a lot of teams in the NFC playoff field look capable.
The defense’s fatal flaw has been readily available for the better part of the last two months. Mike Pettine’s group has no answer for receivers, tight ends and running backs in the middle of the field.
On Sunday night, the 49ers scored touchdown passes on explosive plays to Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Both completions were to the middle of the field. Kittle caught six passes for 129 yards, with most of the damage coming between the numbers and against little resistance. Talented tight ends and quick receivers capable of winning on in-breaking routes have given the Packers the most trouble.
The issues covering the middle of the field have resulted in explosive plays almost every week. That’s a problem that started in Week 2 and hasn’t gone away.
Another potential fatal flaw is on special teams, where Shawn Mennenga hasn’t fielded a capable group all season. The unit might have hit rock bottom on Sunday night as punter JK Scott hit one shank after another and the return groups, especially on punts, continue to accomplish nothing.
The Packers haven’t played a complete game this season, but they have produced a pair of three-phase meltdowns.
To their credit, the Packers have won in Chicago, Dallas and Kansas City, and they’ve won five of six games at home. LaFleur’s team has laid the foundation of a legitimate run to the playoffs. And with games against the Giants, Redskins and Lions still to go, getting to 11 wins looks possible, if not likely.
But issues evolve into fatal flaws when they’re big enough and consistent enough to prevent a team from making a deep run in the playoffs, and the Packers’ inability to find a legitimate second target in the passing game or cover the middle of the field or play a complete game have risen to that level.
The loss to the Chargers looked like something of an aberration, a glitch in the matrix. Sunday night proved the issues are embedded much deeper in the software.
Despite a trying month, the Packers still have everything in front of them. An opportunity to win the NFC North and host a playoff game is right there. Getting to 10 or 11 wins and stamping a trip to the playoffs should be all but expected.
But time is running out on LaFleur, Rodgers, Pettine and Mennenga to fix what has been consistently wrong, the problems that plagued the Packers even as they were piling up wins.
The Packers are good, but are they great? And can they take that next step in five weeks? McCarthy’s 2015 team stumbled and never really recovered, a result of flaws they couldn’t fix, even as the Hail Marys were being answered. LaFleur’s team has similar flaws, but also a chance to write a different ending.