With one game remaining on the 2021 schedule, and with the San Francisco 49ers needing a win over the Los Angeles Rams to ensure a playoff berth, head coach Kyle Shanahan has likely decided on his Week 18 starter.
Jimmy Garoppolo.
The veteran quarterback was sidelined for Week 17 after suffering a torn ligament in his right thumb. Rookie Trey Lance started in Garoppolo’s place last week against the Houston Texans and completed 16 of 23 passes for 249 yards and a pair of touchdowns, along with an interception. With San Francisco winning the game by a final score of 23-7, Lance earned his first win as a starting quarterback in the NFL.
But this week, the opponent is the Rams, sporting one of the best defenses in the league. Los Angeles ranks fifth in Total Defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) while Houston, who Lance faced last week, clocks in at 18th in the league. Of course, you know the names. Aaron Donald. Von Miller. Jalen Ramsey. Leonard Floyd.
In short, the Rams pose a much different challenge than the Texans. So with the season on the line, Shanahan is turning to the veteran.
Interestingly enough, the Rams are one of a few teams that Garoppolo has enjoyed consistent success against. In his career, Garoppolo has made five starts against the Rams, and the 49ers have won all five of those game. In those contests, Garoppolo has completed 68% of his passes for 1,233 yards and eight touchdowns, along with five interceptions.
Back in Week 10, when Garoppolo recorded his fifth win over the Rams of his career, he completed 15 of 19 passes for 182 yards and a pair of touchdowns. That game, won by San Francisco by a final score of 31-10, was marked by the 49ers’ first drive of the game, which saw the team put together an 18-play, 93-yard drive for a touchdown which covered over 11 minutes of game clock.
The back-breaker in that game, however, was this touchdown early in the fourth quarter. With the 49ers facing a 4th down in Rams’ territory, Garoppolo found Deebo Samuel on an in-breaking route against zone coverage, and the receiver took care of the rest:
Looking back to last season, Garoppolo’s best game of the 2020 campaign came against the Rams in Week 6. In a 24-16 victory, the quarterback completed 23 of 33 passes for 268 yards and a season-high three touchdowns, without an interception. A big play early in that game came on this fourth-down touchdown pass to George Kittle:
These two plays, in addition to being fourth-down conversions that went for touchdowns, might illustrate why Shanahan feels comfortable rolling with Garoppolo for the season finale. Both plays involved in-breaking route attacking the heart of the defense, requiring a quick read and decision from the quarterback.
While Lance made strides in that area from his first NFL start to last week, these kinds of plays are the strength of Garoppolo’s game. Facing a defense like the Rams, quick decisions are critical to offensive success.
Only time will tell if Shanahan’s decision proves to be the right one.