Rory McIlroy said it best the other day about Scottie Scheffler at the PGA Championship: The only thing that stopped the world’s top golfer from winning another major was “going into a jail cell for an hour.”
Sure, Rory was joking. But there’s some truth to the fact that Scheffler is on a heater like almost nothing we’ve seen before (see: Woods, Tiger). Since his T10 finish at the Genesis, he’s won five times in his last eight starts, including a green jacket at the Masters. He finished T8 at the PGA AFTER BEING ARRESTED AND CHARGED WITH MULTIPLE CRIMES!!
So, sure: you could bet on him to win at Pinehurst. But here’s why you shouldn’t:
1. His odds make it a bad bet
At +300, you’re not going to make much money betting on him. Yet golf bettors are pouring their money into him. There’s so much value elsewhere! C’mon!
2. The U.S. Open is a different beast
The Open is meant to confound and test golfers. The roughs are usually grown extra long. The putting surfaces are like ice. So betting on the favorite isn’t usually the best idea.
3. His putting might be a problem
This seems silly, but bear with me: he’s 71st on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting. Yes, he’s first in putting average, but that one gives me pause this week.
4. The field is huge
That opens it up for a lot of others to win it. That also means he’s facing the best of the best in the world.
So, yes: I’ll be taking my money elsewhere this week.
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