3 keys to an upset win for the Panthers over Seahawks

If they’re going to pull off an upset, here are a few notes they’ll need to hit.

The Panthers are underdogs by almost a touchdown despite playing at home today against the Seahawks.

If they’re going to pull off an upset, here are a few notes they’ll need to hit.

Stop Chris Carson

Like Carolina, Seattle has a classic establish-the-run kind of offense. The Seahawks are running on 48.7% of their plays this season, which is the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Expect them to push that tendency particularly hard today, considering the Panthers are the worst run defending team in the league. They’re ranked dead last in Football Outsiders’ rushing defense DVOA and have given up more fantasy points to running backs than any other team. With its No. 2 back Rashaad Penny out, Seattle will rely heavily on Chris Carson. It’s easier said than done with Dontari Poe and Kawann Short on injured reserve, but the Panthers’ defensive front seven has to find a way to slow him down.

Stay disciplined on defense

Selling out to stop the run can of course come back to haunt you, especially against Seattle. Russell Wilson is most dangerous when opposing defenses bite on play action fakes. Carolina’s linebackers and corners have to take extra care not to get sucked in too deep. They’ll also have to keep Wilson contained as much as possible and not let him roll out and wreak havoc outside of the pocket. That means Mario Addison, Brian Burns and company have to contain the edges.

Feed Christian McCaffrey

Seattle’s defense is not nearly as dangerous as it used to be. While they have improved a lot since trading for Jadeveon Clowney and Quandre Diggs, they can be run on. They’re ranked No. 22 against the rush by DVOA and have given up some big numbers to star running backs this year. Clowney is their best run defender but he’s out this week with a core injury. That gives the Panthers even more reason to ride Christian McCaffrey. Last year when these teams met, he posted 125 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 17 carries. He also destroyed Seattle as a receiver, totaling 112 yards and another score on 10 catches.

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