The New Orleans Saints are going into the 2020 offseason in a precarious position. They’ve assembled one of the most-talented rosters around the league, featuring star talent at nearly every position group. They also don’t have a single quarterback under contract past March. And fresh off of a painful postseason loss to the Minnesota Vikings, it’s fair to wonder whether they’re one or two big upgrades away from getting back to Super Bowl contention. It’s possible that this team has deeper-running issues that could take a while to fix.
Unfortunately, time isn’t on their side. Drew Brees should be expected to re-sign for another title run as the team’s starting quarterback, and he’ll be turning 41 next week. Many of those same Pro Bowl-bound core players are going to be due big paydays in the near future. The Saints haven’t shied away from making a splash in free agency in the past, with varying results (some are good, like Brees himself and linebacker Demario Davis. And then you have the Jairus Byrd and Brandon Browner signings), so it’s possible they go that route again.
Let’s be clear: betting everything on one blue-chip free agent pickup isn’t the route we’d like to take. The Saints got where they are now by patiently investing in their scouting and coaching staffs, carefully selecting high-upside free agents and trusting their process to develop them into studs. That’s how you sustain success in the NFL. If anything, this year feels like one where the Saints could keep their investing in-house, holding onto homegrown talent while angling to qualify for a compensatory draft pick or two next offseason.
But if the Saints are truly desperate to win a Super Bowl championship with Brees still around, and if they think a huge free agent addition is the way to get there, then these are the moves we’d advocate for.
Brandon Scherff
Scherff, 28, was voted into the Pro Bowl in three of his first five years in the NFL. He’s appeared in 65 of 80 possible games, playing 4,130 snaps during that time, and been fouled 22 times (three offsetting/declined). While he’s played right guard exclusively in the NFL, Scherff starred on the left side at both tackle an guard in college with the Iowa Hawkeyes — the position he’d fill in New Orleans.
With one-time Pro Bowler Andrus Peat on the outs in free agency, the Saints will have a hole to fill in the starting lineup at left guard. For context, Peat has also appeared in 65 of 80 regular season games, logging 3,702 snaps, drawing 24 penalties (just one offset/declined). In other words, Scherff played 428 more snaps (the equivalent of seven more games) and committed just two more fouls. Going from Peat to Scherff would be as strong an upgrade as you’ll see in the NFL, but it would carry a huge cost. Scherff wants to be the highest-paid guard in the league, and reportedly turned down a $13 million per-year contract offer from the Washington Redskins to get it.
That’s a tall ask. Salary cap management isn’t as much a concern for the Saints as other teams (general manager Mickey Loomis is comfortable with creatively manipulating contract structures to create new spending room), but it is something worth noting. The Saints have already handed out big-money deals to left tackle Terron Armstead and right guard Larry Warford, while right tackle Ryan Ramczyk has two years left on his rookie contract if the Saints pick up his option for 2021 (they will). Standout center Erik McCoy is entering the second of his four-year rookie deal. It won’t be easy, but there’s room for Scherff in the Saints’ budget.
The Risk: Scherff is already 28, and will require a market-resetting contract to acquire. He’s ended each of his last two seasons on injured reserve with a torn pectoral muscle (in 2018) and elbow and shoulder issues (in 2019). If these are connected problems, it could be a sign of his body breaking down, which would limit his availability moving forward.
The Reward: Scherff sets the pace for the rest of the NFL’s guards in pass-blocking efficiency, and his presence would do a lot to solidify an offensive line that got exposed in the playoffs by a talented Vikings front. Whether Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill, or someone else is under center the next few years, Scherff would be an excellent upgrade — when he’s healthy.