It’s only Week 8 in the NFL season. Even after this week’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans is played, nine games still remain.
However, in the grand scheme of the AFC South playoff race, this game comes with major implications. In short, this is as close to a must-win as you can get at the mid-way point of the season.
As always, in a nuanced game like football, there will be a number of factors that go into determining Sunday’s outcome, but the answers to these three questions on the defensive side of the ball will certainly carry some weight when it comes to how things unfold.
Can the Colts contain RB Joe Mixon this time?
The Colts run defense has been better since the last time these two teams met–although ‘better’ is a relative term. Overall, Indianapolis still ranks in the bottom-third of the NFL in yards per rush surrendered and have given up the most explosive runs this season.
In Week 1, Mixon and the Texans’ run game ran all over the Colts’ Mixon rushed for 159 yards at over 5.0 yards per pop while Houston as an offense totaled 213 rushing yards.
Beyond the Texans’ ability to move the ball on the ground, which then opens up the passing game, this type of performance from a running back can really wear down a defense and it also led to a very lopsided time of possession battle, with Houston running over 30 more plays than the Colts’ offense.
Can the Colts pass rush get after CJ Stroud?
With injuries playing a large factor, the Colts’ pass rush this season hasn’t packed that steady pop that was envisioned for this unit at the start of the season. In terms of sacks, the Colts rank 23rd. By ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric, they also rank 23rd. Neither of those rankings are good signs for a defense that’s built to win up front.
Without a steady pass rush presence, there is a negative trickle-down effect to the rest of the defense. A lack of pressure means time in the pocket for the quarterback to throw in rhythm and within the timing of the play. It can also mean more coverage time for the secondary–which is never easy for any group.
The Texans offensive line unit will enter this game ranked 25th in pass-block win rate. They’ve also surrendered the third-highest pressure rate this season, according to Pro Football Reference. If the Colts want to limit the Houston passing game, it starts with getting after Stroud–although by PFF’s metrics, he’s been–relatively speaking–pretty good under pressure this season. However, pressure is far better than giving him a clean pocket.
Will DeForest Buckner play?
We will have this answer before kickoff on Sunday, obviously, but the answer to the question will come with a massive impact either way.
Buckner returned to practice this week and has been designated to return from injured reserve, opening up a 21 day window for the team to add him back to the active roster at any point within that timeframe.
Buckner was a limited participant on Wednesday, a full participant on Thursday, and did not practice Friday–potentially as a rest day. It goes without saying, but against both the run and the pass, the Colts have missed his presence dearly.
In Week 1, Buckner had three pressures, two sacks, and six total tackles in the run game, all of which were considered stops by PFF.