1. Iowa State at Texas
LINE: PICK
ATS PICK: Texas
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This is nothing more than 1) Texas being an even call at home – or a -1 in several places – and 2) total snobbery.
Iowa State already beat Oklahoma, but it went on the road and lost to Oklahoma State.
Iowa State is rolling offensively, but so would you against Kansas, Baylor, and Kansas State.
Iowa State is … Iowa State. Okay, that’s stupid, because this is a strong Big 12 team – for whatever that means this year for the conference – with a whole lot of very, very, very good parts coached by a guy who could take over just about any bigger job he wanted.
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But as good as Matt Campbell is, and as good as RB Breece Hall is, and as good as QB Brock Purdy is, here’s where the snob side kicks in.
1979. That’s the first meeting ever between these two, and Texas won 17-9 in Austin. The 28-21 win in 2019 over a bad Longhorn team was the only victory in nine tries on the road, and again, it’s still Texas, and it’s still at home in a relatively dead even game.
This hasn’t been the total wipeout series historically that Oklahoma-Iowa State is in terms of blowouts, but it’s not terribly far off – Texas is 15-2 all-time in this series.
But you need more than just uppity goofiness.
Texas has started tackling again.
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It’s been years since the defense could do the basics, and it’s still a work in progress in so many ways, but the run D has toughened up, allowing 130 yards or fewer in each of the last three games – all wins.
Here’s the stat that’s going to scare you off this pick, though. Texas is 5-0 when allowing 130 rushing yards or fewer, and 0-2 when it gives up more, and Iowa State has yet to run for fewer than 135 yards.
However, it’s Senior Day for Sam Ehlinger and a slew of key parts for Texas, the team is on a roll, and this is just the third road game all year for the Cyclones.
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