2025 Valspar Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

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The PGA Tour will remain in Florida for one more week before ending this leg of the schedule, capping things off with the 2025 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor. The first round begins on Thursday morning.

Below, we look at Valspar Championship odds from BetMGM Sportsbook’s odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Xander Schauffele is the highest-ranked player in the field this week, but he’s not the tournament favorite. His odds of +2000 are fourth in the field, behind Tommy Fleetwood at +1200, Justin Thomas (+1400) and Sepp Straka at +1800. Schauffele is still working his way back from injury ahead of the Masters so he’ll be teeing it up at Innisbrook, as he did last year and in 2022.

The Copperhead Course is a par 71 and plays at 7,352 this year. The course was lengthened slightly by moving the tees for the 9th hole to the 11th tee box. It was already a long course, but it’s even more challenging now with this added length. There are 5 par 3s on the scorecard this week, limiting the scoring opportunities for players in the field. The winning score has been between 7-under and 17-under every year since 2010. Peter Malnati (+50000) won last year at 12-under 272.

Valspar Championship: Best prop bet predictions

Valspar Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 6:23 p.m. ET.

Justin Thomas (+1400)

Thomas followed up an opening-round 78 with a second-round 62, a massive 16-shot swing. He faded on the weekend, but he’s still off to a great start this season, ranking 15th in strokes gained: tee-to-green. He finished 13th or better in this event 3 straight years from 2021-23 so his course history at Innisbrook is good, too.

Will Zalatoris (+2800)

Zalatoris seems to play his best when the conditions are toughest, which may not sound accurate after he fell apart on Saturday at Sawgrass. Still, he ranked ninth in SG: approach throughout the week and was even 19th in putting. He just made a few careless mistakes that led to big numbers.

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Valspar Championship picks – Contenders

Taylor Moore (+4500)

Moore won this event in 2023 and followed it up with a 12th-place finish last year. He ranks 25th on Tour in SG: tee-to-green and actually played well last week at Sawgrass despite an underwhelming 33rd-place finish; he was 22nd in SG: tee-to-green and 13th off the tee.

Lucas Glover (+4500)

With how challenging (and abundant) the par 3s are at Innisbrook, par 3 scoring average is a key stat. Glover ranks third on the PGA Tour in that category, so that should give him an advantage. And he’s coming off a terrific ball-striking week at the Players Championship where he was seventh in SG: tee-to-green.

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Valspar Championship picks – Long shots

Beau Hossler (+8000)

Hossler is good around the greens, which will be important this week given how difficult it’ll be to hit greens in regulation. His track record at Innisbrook is terrible (1 made cut in his last 6 starts), but he’s 15th in par 3 scoring this season and is typically a solid ball striker with a good short game.

Erik van Rooyen (+10000)

van Rooyen has played this event twice, missing the cut once and finishing 10th the other time. He came in ninth at the Cognizant Classic earlier this month and ranks fourth in approaches from 200-plus yards, which is a notable metric this week given the length of the Copperhead Course.

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