2025 Draft Order Projections: Every combination of Week 18 results that impact Cowboys’ slot

A look at the most likely draft position for Dallas based on number of scenarios, along with a list of each W/L configuration for teams that can finish between No. 11 and No. 17 in the first round.

TL;DR While most attention this weekend will go towards playoff positioning, the Dallas Cowboys are in a scramble for draft position superiority. There are nine teams which could finish between No. 11 and No. 17 in the draft order and 64 total combinations.

  • Dallas’ floor is the No. 16 pick; their ceiling is the No. 12 pick.
  • If Dallas wins, No. 13 is the earliest in the draft they can pick.
  • If Dallas loses, they can end up no worse than No 13.
  • The Cowboys can only pick No. 13 if Arizona beats San Francisco.
  • The most common outcome, based on win/loss combinations is the Cowboys select No. 12, with 16 possible outcomes.

The 2024 NFL regular season is almost over and there’s plenty left to be determined. Each conference has already locked in six of their seven contestants for the postseason tournament. Kansas City has locked up the AFC No. 1 seed, Buffalo is the No. 2 seed and Houston is locked into the No. 4 seed. The AFC North is a battle between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, with the Steelers Week 18 opponent, Cincinnati, trying to overtake the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins for the final wild-card spot.

Meanwhile the No. 1 seed in the NFC is the biggest result in waiting, with Minnesota and Detroit battling for NFC North supremacy. The Eagles and Rams have clinched their divisions, with Washington locked into a wild-card berth and Atlanta (vs Carolina) and Tampa Bay (vs New Orleans) chasing the NFC South crown.

But those aren’t the only stakes. Draft order is on the line and there are seven teams jostling to determine the final order in the middle of the first round.

The San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys are all in contention to finish anywhere from No. 11 to No. 17.

Technically the Bucs and Broncos are in this conversation as well, but if either or both fail to qualify, they would finish at the back of this cluster so we’ll leave them out of the conversation.

With the 49ers and Cardinals facing each other, there are 64 different combinations of final results, excluding ties.

In the other matchups, Dallas takes on Washington, Indianapolis faces the Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami plays the New York Jets, Cincinnati squares off with the Steelers and Atlanta tackles the Carolina Panthers.

Here’s each different scenario, categorized by where the Cowboys would draft in the first round based on the specific set of results.

Dallas win scenarios (8-9)

Dallas picks No. 12 if:

There are no scenarios where Dallas wins and finishes No. 12.

Dallas picks No. 13 if:

  1. AZ+CIN+MIA wins, SF+IND+ATL loses
  2. AZ+CIN+MIA+ATL wins, SF+IND loses
  3. AZ+IND+MIA+CIN wins, SF+ATL loses
  4. AZ+IND+MIA+CIN+ATL wins, SF loses

Dallas picks No. 14 if:

  1. SF+CIN+ATL+MIA wins, AZ+IND loses
  2. SF+IND+ATL+MIA wins, AZ+CIN loses
  3. SF+IND+CIN+MIA wins, AZ+ATL loses
  4. SF+IND+CIN+MIA+ATL wins, AZ loses
  5. AZ+CIN wins, SF+IND+MIA+ATL loses
  6. AZ+MIA wins, SF+IND+CIN+ATL loses
  7. AZ+MIA+ATL wins, SF+IND+CIN loses
  8. AZ+CIN+ATL wins, SF+IND+MIA loses
  9. AZ+IND+CIN wins, SF+MIA+ATL loses
  10. AZ+IND+MIA wins, SF+MIA+CIN loses
  11. AZ+IND+CIN+ATL wins, SF+MIA loses
  12. AZ+IND+MIA+ATL wins, SF+CIN loses

Dallas picks No. 15 if:

  1. SF+CIN wins, AZ+IND+MIA+ATL loses
  2. SF+MIA wins, AZ+IND+CIN+ATL loses
  3. SF+MIA+ATL wins, AZ+IND+CIN loses
  4. SF+IND+CIN wins, AZ+MIA+ATL loses
  5. SF+IND+MIA wins, AZ+CIN+ATL loses
  6. SF+CIN+ATL wins, AZ+IND+MIA loses
  7. SF+IND+MIA+ATL wins, AZ+CIN loses
  8. SF+IND+MIA+ATL+CIN wins, AZ loses
  9. AZ wins, SF+IND+MIA+ATL+CIN loses
  10. AZ+ATL wins, SF+IND+MIA+CIN loses
  11. AZ+IND wins, SF+MIA+CIN+ATL loses
  12. AZ+IND+ATL wins, SF+MIA+CIN loses

Dallas picks No. 16 if:

  1. SF wins, AZ+IND+MIA+CIN+ATL loses
  2. SF+ATL wins, AZ+IND+MIA+CIN loses
  3. SF+IND wins, AZ+MIA+CIN+ATL loses
  4. SF+IND+ATL wins, AZ+MIA+CIN loses

Dallas loss scenarios (7-10)

Dallas picks No. 11 if:

  1. SF+IND wins, AZ+ATL+MIA+CIN loses
  2. SF+IND+ATL wins, AZ+CIN+MIA loses
  3. SF+CIN+IND wins, AZ+ATL+MIA loses
  4. SF+CIN+ATL+IND wins, AZ+MIA loses
  5. SF+MIA+IND wins, AZ+ATL+CIN loses
  6. SF+MIA+ATL+IND wins, AZ+CIN loses
  7. SF+MIA+CIN+IND wins, AZ+ATL loses
  8. SF+MIA+CIN+IND+ATL wins, AZ loses

Dallas picks No. 12 if:

  1. SF wins, AZ+IND+MIA+CIN+ATL loses
  2. SF+ATL wins, AZ+IND+MIA+CIN loses
  3. SF+CIN wins, AZ+IND+MIA+ATL loses
  4. SF+MIA wins, AZ+IND+CIN+ATL loses
  5. SF+CIN+ATL wins, AZ+IND+MIA loses
  6. SF+MIA+ATL wins, AZ+IND+CIN loses
  7. SF+CIN+MIA wins, AZ+IND+ATL loses
  8. SF+CIN+ATL+MIA wins, AZ+IND loses
  9. AZ+IND wins, SF+CIN+MIA+ATL loses
  10. AZ+IND+ATL wins, SF+CIN+MIA loses
  11. AZ+IND+CIN wins, SF+ATL+MIA loses
  12. AZ+IND+MIA wins, SF+ATL+CIN loses
  13. AZ+IND+CIN+ATL wins, SF+MIA loses
  14. AZ+IND+MIA+ATL wins, SF+CIN loses
  15. AZ+IND+MIA+CIN wins, SF+ATL loses
  16. AZ+IND+MIA+CIN+ATL wins, SF loses

Dallas picks No. 13 if:

  1. AZ wins, SF+IND+CIN+ATL+MIA loses
  2. AZ+ATL wins, SF+IND+CIN+MIA loses
  3. AZ+CIN wins, SF+IND+ATL+MIA loses
  4. AZ+CIN+ATL wins, SF+IND+MIA loses
  5. AZ+MIA wins, SF+IND+CIN+ATL loses
  6. AZ+MIA+ATL wins, SF+IND+CIN loses
  7. AZ+MIA+CIN wins, SF+IND+ATL loses
  8. AZ+MIA+CIN+ATL wins, SF+IND loses

Dallas picks No. 14 if:

There are no combinations for Dallas to finish here if they lose.

Dallas picks No. 15 if:

There are no combinations for Dallas to finish here if they lose.

Dallas picks No. 16 if:

There are no combinations for Dallas to finish here if they lose.

*ChatGPT was used to calculate all of the various win/loss combinations.