2024 Valspar Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

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The PGA Tour heads to Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Fla., for the 2024 Valspar Championship this week, the final event of the Florida swing. The 1st round begins on Thursday morning as players continue to prepare for next month’s Masters.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2024 Valspar Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scottie Scheffler remains the highest-ranked player in this week’s Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, but he’s not in the field for the Valspar Championship. Xander Schauffele, who’s the betting favorite this week at +750, is ranked 2nd, with 2-time champion Sam Burns (+1100) ranked 9th. Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas are also among the favorites (both at +1400) to win at Innisbrook.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is a good test for players, even more so than TPC Sawgrass last week. The Snake Pit, which is the final 3 holes, makes this a difficult finishing stretch for the leaders on Sunday. It’s a par 71 and plays at 7,340 yards, featuring tree-lined fairways that emphasize accuracy off the tee and positioning in the fairway.

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Valspar Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7:19 p.m. ET.

Justin Thomas (+300)

Thomas missed the cut at the Players Championship last week, which was a huge surprise because he had been playing well previously. In 3 starts here, he’s finished 10th, 3rd and 13th since 2021, so he’s played Innisbrook well, which isn’t shocking considering he typically excels on more difficult courses.

Sam Burns (+260)

Burns won this event in 2021 and 2022 before coming back last year and finishing 6th, a very impressive showing for the 2-time champion. At +260, his odds for a top-5 are short but he hasn’t finished worse than 30th here in the last 5 years.

Valspar Championship – Top-10 picks

Sungjae Im (+240)

Im has gotten back on track in the last 2 weeks by finishing 18th and 31st, so he’s building some momentum. He finished 4th in 2019 and 29th in 2021 so he does have some experience on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook.

Nick Taylor (+300)

Taylor finished 10th here a year ago and is playing some really impressive golf right now, which includes a win at the WM Phoenix Open. Aside from a 3rd-round 76 at the Players Championship, he was right in the mix and still finished 26th.

Cameron Young (+240)

Young always seems to play better on more difficult courses where the scoring is lower, like major championships for instance. Innisbrook fits that mold to an extent, even though he’s never played this event before. It’s hard to feel confident in him winning right now with how poorly he’s been putting, but solid iron play could get him in the top 10; he has 2 such finishes this season.

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Valspar Championship – Top-20 picks

Doug Ghim (+188)

Ghim has notched 5 straight top-20 finishes and will try to make it 6 in a row this week at Innisbrook where he finished 27th a year ago. With the way he’s playing right now (4th in SG: total), he’s a good bet to at least come in the top 20 again.

Keith Mitchell (+188)

Before the Players Championship, Mitchell had finished 9th, 19th and 17th in his previous 3 starts. Back in 2017, he finished 11th at the Valspar and made the cut in 2021 (69th). He ranks 12th in SG: tee-to-green this season which is an indication of great ball-striking, which is required here.

Matt NeSmith (+350)

NeSmith finished 21st in 2021 and followed it up with a 3rd-place finish in 2022, so while he may be a long shot, he has a record of high finishes at this event. A price of +350 for a top-20 is more than reasonable for a guy who’s average finish is 12th at Innisbrook.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Scott Stallings (+650)
K.H. Lee (+400)

Valspar Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Cameron Young (-120) vs. Min Woo Lee (-105)

Neither player has experience in this event so it’s an even playing field, but Young is trending in a better direction right now than Lee is. He’s been the better ball-striker this season, too.

Nick Taylor (-120) vs. Eric Cole (-105)

Cole has missed the cut in 2 of his last 3 starts, slowing down a bit after a great rookie season in 2023. He also missed the cut here last year while Taylor is 3-for-5 in made cuts here since 2018, including a 10th-place finish last year.

Valspar Championship – Top English

Aaron Rai (+130)

It’s not the strongest field for Englishmen, with Matt Wallace having the 2nd-best odds at +350, followed by Harry Hall at +650. Rai hasn’t finished worse than 35th in his last 3 starts, including a 19th-place performance at the Mexico Open

Valspar Championship – First-round leader

Nick Taylor (+4500)

Taylor ranks 4th in Round 1 scoring average this season and just finished 10th here last year.

Matt NeSmith (+9000)

NeSmith opened with a 67 here 2 years ago and was only 3 shots off the lead, eventually finishing 10th on Sunday. He ranks 50th in 1st-round scoring average, but was 37th before last week’s Players.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group D winner: Doug Ghim (+275)

Ghim is going up against Rai (+333), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+333), Maverick McNealy (+425) and Sepp Straka (+450). Bezuidenhout and Rai are playing well right now and McNealy was near the top of the Players leaderboard before going cold on Sunday, but Ghim is as steady as anyone right now.

Will there be a hole in one? Yes (-110)

At -110 with 5 par 3s, albeit, difficult ones, betting for there to be a hole-in-one is a fun wager given the price. Ryan Brehm cashed this ticket with an ace last year.

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