2024 PGA Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

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Louisville will be the center of the golf world this week with the 2024 PGA Championship in town for the 2nd major of the year. Valhalla Golf Club is hosting this storied event for 2nd time in 10 years. In 2014 Rory McIlroy won it to claim his 3rd major championship. The 1st round tees off on Thursday morning from Kentucky.

Below, we look at BetMGM Sportsbook’s 2024 PGA Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler hasn’t played since winning the RBC Heritage the week after winning the Masters, but he’ll be back in the field this week following the birth of his 1st child and in search of his 2nd straight major title. He’s the betting favorite again at +450, followed by McIlroy (+750) and Xander Schauffele (+1400), who dueled on Sunday at the Wells Fargo Championship. Reigning PGA Champion Brooks Koepka is at +1600 in his quest for a 4th Wanamaker Trophy.

The field also includes 4-time PGA Championship winner Tiger Woods, who opens at +15000 to win. Woods finished 60th at the Masters (+16).

Valhalla Golf Club is yet another long PGA Championship course, coming in at 7,609 yards. It’s a par 71, making it an even more challenging track at that length. It was designed by Jack Nicklaus and opened in 1986 and this is the 4th time it is hosting a PGA Championship (1986, 2000, 2014). Hitting the fairway is critical because of how lush the rough is, penalizing players for missing with errant tee shots.

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PGA Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 2:32 p.m. ET.

Brooks Koepka (+1600)

Koepka is a big-game hunter and the PGA Championship is his specialty. He’s won this event 3 times already, claiming the title in 2018, 2019 and 2023. He finished 2nd in 2021 at Kiawah, too, behind only Phil Mickelson. Koepka did not have a good week at the Masters (T-49, +9), but he’s since gotten back on track, finishing 10th in Adelaide and winning in Singapore, his last 2 LIV starts. With a U.S. Open-type layout, Koepka has the ability to grind through 4 rounds better than most players.

Ludvig Aberg (+1800)

Aberg withdrew from the Wells Fargo Championship last week due to a knee injury, but that seems to be more of a precaution than a serious ailment for the 24-year-old star. In his 1st career major start at the Masters in April, he finished 2nd, showing that no stage is too big for him. He has the all-around game to win a PGA Championship, too, being one of the best drivers and long-iron players in the world.

Rory McIlroy (+750)

This number was a bit higher before McIlroy won in convincing fashion at Quail Hollow on Sunday, but he’s still worth betting at +750. He’s now won in back-to-back starts and heads to Valhalla where he won the 2014 PGA Championship. With the Masters pressure behind him, he can play more freely in Louisville this week knowing this event doesn’t come with the burden of attempting to complete the grand slam.

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PGA Championship picks – Contenders

Will Zalatoris (+6000)

In Zalatoris’ last 5 starts at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open, he’s finished 6th, 8th, MC, 2nd and 2nd. Few players in the world have had better recent success in those 2 major championships than Zalatoris, and it’s largely because the best ball-strikers rise to the top in these events. He’s a great bet for any PGA Championship, especially at +6000. That number is much longer than you’d expect from his major history.

Cameron Smith (+4000)

The biggest concern with Smith is his driving accuracy. He can get a bit wild off the tee, which at a course like Valhalla can be particularly penalizing. But if he can manage to keep it in the short grass, he’ll be peppering these greens to give himself good looks at birdies. And when he misses the green, he has an excellent short game to scramble and recover for pars. He’s finished 13th and 9th in his last 2 PGA Championship starts.

Jason Day (+5500)

Day is a past PGA Champion, winning in 2015 at Whistling Straits. He struggled in this championship in recent years but he has 6 career top-10s in the PGA Championship. Day is playing well at the moment, fresh off a T-4 at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, a good test before the year’s 2nd major.

PGA Championship picks – Long shots

Jake Knapp (+17500)

Knapp has all the talent in the world, but he can be inconsistent, particularly with his driver. When the timing of his swing is off, he tends to have a bad left miss off the tee, which has hurt him in recent months. But as we saw at the Mexico Open and Cognizant Classic in back-to-back weeks when he finished 1st and 4th, he’s a star when the swing is timed up properly. He has the length to conquer Valhalla, too.

Alex Noren (+12500)

It’s been 3 months since Noren finished worse than 24th in any event. He’s on a heater right now and while that may not translate to a major win (he has zero career PGA Tour victories), he’s worth considering at this price. Noren ranks 8th on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green so his ball-striking is fantastic.

Cam Davis (+15000)

Davis was having a good week in Charlotte until he shot 6-over in the final round to tumble down the leaderboard, all the way to T-38. He surprised a lot of people when he came in 3rd at the 2023 PGA Championship and he’s now made the cut in 3 straight years at this major.

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