The 2024 NFL Draft is nearly here, which means more smoke than actual fire will permeate draft reporting and mock drafts. Some picks are now pretty locked in, but nothing characterizes the immediate lead-up to the draft like unyielding chaos.
This year should be exceptionally turbulent, thanks to the deep class of quarterbacks and the many teams that need starting passers. No mock draft would be truly complete without some wild trades, and certainly not this one, in any case.
Here’s our latest look at how the first round of the 2024 NFL draft could go:
*projected trade
Caleb Williams will be a Chicago Bear. The bigger question is how long will Williams pretend to like deep dish pizza once he is in Chicago?
There are simply too many signs pointing to the Commanders’ preference for Daniels over Drake Maye. He is a perfect fit for Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid-style offense and has a similar profile to current Commanders’ quarterback Marcus Mariota.
The Broncos trade a second round-pick this year, a first next year and another first the year after to make this move up to get Drake Maye. Denver head coach Sean Payton is not going to wait for a quarterback to fall in his lap. Maye is not necessarily what Drew Brees was for Payton, but then again, Brees was hardly a finished product before playing for Payton. Maye has plenty of tools for Payton to mold into a starting NFL passer.
Surprise! Marvin Harrison Jr. is not the first wide receiver off the board. He may be the polished and complete receiver in this year’s draft class, but Nabers is by far the most explosive. Kyler Murray is at his best when he stretches the field, and there is no player in this draft better suited than Nabers.
There’s no way the Vikings aren’t making the move up for a quarterback after adding a second first-round pick this year. While the No. 5 overall pick may be a little rich of an unfinished product like McCarthy, he fits the profile of a Shanahan/McVay-style offense as well as any quarterback in this class.
The Giants just need someone to get open. Harrison has plenty of tools in his tool belt to accomplish that. New York’s uncertain quarterback situation may dampen Harrison’s rookie season, but he immediately legitimizes the team’s receiving corps.
The only pick that’s near as certain as the Bears taking Caleb Williams is the Titans drafting Alt. Nashville is running on different clocks than everyone else thanks to the black hole that Tennessee has at left tackle.
The Falcons will want to get the most defensive bang for their buck with the No. 8 overall pick. Turner has the most upside of any edge defender while already showing the ability to play a variety of roles on defense. Raheem Morris might get the centerpiece of his defense here.
While the Bears would certainly benefit from a wide receiver of Odunze’s caliber, the Jaguars must be desperate to get Trevor Lawrence an actual WR1 as his rookie contract nears its end. They give up a future first to move up for the former Huskies star.
Joe Douglas did a lot of work in free agency to fill every possible hole on New York’s offense, likely in no small part to give the Jets maximum flexibility in the draft. However, the obvious move here is to continue to add pieces to the offensive line. Fautanu could play any position on the line, but he will likely be a tackle in waiting for the oft-injured Tyron Smith.
Between the Chargers’ salary cap purge and the arrival of Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles will need to maximize their draft capital for the impending roster makeover. The first piece of the puzzle is Fuaga, who will fortify the offensive line and give them the kind of physicality Harbaugh covets.
Like the Chargers, the Patriots have a new head coach and a lot of needs. Though quarterback was chief among them, New England’s offense is in no shape to drop a rookie in it. The first thing they need is a reliable pass protector. Fashanu is not the tank that some of his peers are, but he may be the best athlete, and arguably possesses the best pass-blocking skills in the bunch.
If the Raiders think Penix is their guy, there is no reason to wait to take him in the second round or otherwise try to move up late. He is a better-than-advertised athlete, and has the tools and confidence to make any throw on the field. Las Vegas’ roster is in no-man’s land. They have every reason to take a swing on the 2023 Heisman runner-up.
The Saints’ offensive line is very suddenly a mess. They likely cannot count on either Trevor Penning or Ryan Ramcyzk heading into the 2024 season. Mims is a gamble himself, having played just 803 snaps in his college career. Gambling, however, is what Saints GM Mickey Loomis does.
While the Colts may be better off taking the best available offensive skill player to maximize Anthony Richardson’s progress, Colts GM Chris Ballard tends to go favor positional value and supreme athleticism. Mitchell provides both, and fills a big need for the defense.
New Seattle HC Mike McDonald may insist on putting his stamp on the roster and take a defensive player despite the many needs on offense. Verse is not the fastest or craftiest edge defender in the class, but his immense play strength will make him useful quickly on McDonald’s adaptive defense.
The Bears don’t get one of the top three receivers, but they do get something they may need more right now: an interior pass rusher. Murphy was a game-wrecker for the Longhorns, and likely will be in the NFL, as well.
Losing D.J. Reader was a bigger deal than Cincinnati likes to acknowledge. He was the key to what little run defense they could muster last season. Newton does not have Reader’s size, but he brings explosion and dynamism to a similar end.
Despite adding three new starters, the Rams secondary is old and creaky. The only proven starter under 30 is safety Kam Curl. DeJean has the talent to redefine the Rams’ identity on defense, and gives them added juice on special teams, especially with the new kickoff rules.
The Steelers’ 2023 plan at cornerback was puzzling to say the least. The only thing that worked out was rookie Joey Porter Jr. This year they complete the rebuild of their secondary by taking Alabama breakout Arnold, who just feels like a Steelers corner.
The Dolphins can’t finish Day 1 of the draft without an offensive lineman. It almost doesn’t matter if they go guard, tackle, or even center. They just need help after all their losses and the age of their returning starters. Latham is a monster of a man who would ideally work as a tackle, but would also fit as a guard.
The Eagles usually draft a year or so ahead of when they will actually need the player. Right tackle Lane Johnson will be 34 years old this season, and is a frequent guest on Philadelphia’s injury report. A raw but gifted athlete, Guyton is a logical succession plan for when Johnson retires.
The Chargers’ trade haul began with help in the trenches. They now get help for Justin Herbert, who is currently staring down the 2024 season without a WR1 or a WR2. Thomas Jr. needs seasoning, but he brings undeniable talent to a receiving corps that has anything but.
Dak Prescott’s contract forced some tough choices for the Cowboys’ roster, but Dallas’ first thought should still be how to best help their franchise quarterback. Powers-Johnson is an excellent center whose best quality may be the attitude adjustment he’s sure to bring to the Dallas offensive line.
The Packers’ roster moves along the secondary have been hit-or-miss over the past few years. They take another swing on a corner to hold down receivers across from Jaire Alexander. Wiggins is undersized, but mitigates this with tight coverage dripping with attitude.
This is best case scenario for the Buccaneers. Latu is the edge defender most likely to meet Tampa Bay’s immediate need for pass rush. The FBS’ leading sack artist in 2023 could continue to feast in Todd Bowles’ aggressive, blitz-happy defense.
Outside OT Paris Johnson Jr., Arizona’s offensive line is stitched together with free-agent castoffs. The Cardinals continue to reset their roster with a foundational piece like Barton, who could fit multiple positions on the line and keep Arizona’s options open well into the future.
The Bills hit a soft reset on their roster this offseason, disassembling their secondary and their wide receiver corps. At the end of the day though, Buffalo is all about Josh Allen, who just needs someone to get open. There is no wide receiver left on the board who does that better than McConkey.
The Lions under Dan Campbell have embodied the blue-collar identity of Detroit. What better addition fits this attitude than Robinson, who looks and plays like an old school 4-3 defensive end. He doesn’t have speed or bend, but his ability to crush pockets with sheer strength will make Aidan Hutchinson’s job much easier.
The Ravens eschew positional value and draft trends, opting instead for just plain good football players. McKinstry was not as flashy for Alabama in 2023 as he was in 2022, but that’s because opposing offenses avoided throwing his direction. While his draft preparation appeared similarly unremarkable, Baltimore refuses to overthink McKinstry’s talent here.
Despite Kyle Shanahan’s mystique as a conjurer of solid offensive line play regardless of who is actually playing on San Francisco’s offensive line, the 49ers need to inject talent into that group. Trent Williams is not getting any younger, and the rest of the line has little upside. Suamataia is largely an upside projection, but the Niners have enough talent on offense to get by while they see if he can give their line the boost it badly needs.
How did this happen? Brock Bowers is one of the ten most talented players in this year’s draft, and he falls to the last pick of the first round? Blame it on positional value whiplash, as tight ends taken in the first round over the past several years have failed to pan out while many taken on Day 2 have yielded value and production. It doesn’t help that Bowers is undersized and will not fit a traditional tight end role. That won’t bother Kansas City, who now have their Travis Kelce succession plan, and a player who will actually get open for Patrick Mahomes.