NFL teams are now finished with their principal additions in free agency and are fully focused on the draft. Many of the rosters are now constructed in such a way that team draft strategies are relatively transparent, mainly teams needing quarterbacks like the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders.
For many other teams, free agency maximized flexibility, adding serviceable starters to holes across the roster. This will allow teams like the Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to simply take the top player on their boards.
Taking all those new additions into account, here’s our updated take on how the first round of the 2024 NFL draft could turn out:
*projected trade
Caleb Williams has already bought a whole winter wardrobe for how locked in this pick is now.
Drake Maye could and probably should be the pick here, but it’s hard to ignore the similarities between Daniels and new Commanders backup Marcus Mariota.
The Giants need a real upgrade at quarterback and continue swinging for the fences this offseason, dealing next year’s first to move up to the third pick. New England is the last place a rookie quarterback would thrive right now. Their roster needs so much more than a quarterback that it may be wiser to acquire future assets while rebuilding the roster.
Arizona would probably like to trade down and acquire more assets, but they’re not likely to get the offers they want. Harrison is one of the best receiving prospects to enter the draft in years, but it’s a great year to need a No. 1 receiver.
With the Patriots now at the sixth pick and more ammo in the box, the Vikings will not gamble on the chance that New England feels better about taking J.J. McCarthy, or better yet, trading with someone else who might. The Vikings give up the 11th and 23rd picks while getting a third-rounder back, but it’s worth it to get their future starting quarterback.
Given their void at left tackle, it would be tempting for the Patriots to take Joe Alt here. However, Nabers is one of the three best players in the draft. New England has not had a receiver of Nabers’ caliber since Randy Moss was on the roster.
It is impossible to ignore the two gaping holes at both tackle positions in Tennessee. Alt is one of the easier projections to pencil in here.
The Falcons look to end their long edge rush drought by taking one of the most athletic defensive prospects available. Turner needs seasoning, but he has the tools to be a productive pass rusher in the NFL.
While Keenan Allen should be a great asset for Caleb Williams in 2024, he is a stop-gap option at 31 years old. Odunze gives the Bears maximum flexibility to keep Williams flush with weapons for the foreseeable future.
Signing Tyron Smith to start at left tackle was perhaps a short-sighted move by the Jets given his injury history, but it appears to fulfill their need for a starting left tackle. Now they can focus on maximizing Aaron Rodgers’ output next season, which a weapon of Bowers’ caliber is going to do.
The Chargers are a mess of a roster that could take any number of players here, but this is a perfect landing spot for Mitchell. Los Angeles has only one true starting-caliber corner, and Mitchell is the best of this year’s class, with the athleticism and skills to fit just about any system.
The Broncos are another team with a whole mess of roster holes, especially at quarterback. However, Sean Peyton is unlikely to reach for one here with the top four guys off the board. Instead, he adds a potent interior pass rusher in Murphy, upgrading an otherwise substandard defensive line.
The Raiders are yet another team needing a quarterback, but they could easily wait until the second round. Here, now full-time head coach Antonio Pierce sticks to what he knows best: Defense. DeJean brings size and physicality to an underwhelming secondary, and fits what Pierce is trying to do on that side of the ball.
The Saints’ once vaunted offensive line fell apart in a hurry. Trevor Penning has not worked out and Ryan Ramczyk has flirted with retirement. Fautanu can play just about any spot on the line, wherever New Orleans might need him.
Arnold is the epitome of a Chris Ballard first-round pick: Big and fast. The Colts also need another starting corner, so it’s a perfect fit.
New head coach Mike McDonald will want to put his stamp on the defense, which could use a talent infusion at outside linebacker. Verse comes with more of a power profile and makes the Seahawks immediately stronger up front.
Losing Calvin Ridley left the Jags in a tough spot. Now they really have to find a No. 1 wide receiver in the draft. Thomas Jr. has the traits to fill the role, even if his resume lacks the production.
Though the Bengals signed Trent Brown, his one-year, $4.75-million deal should not prohibit Cincinnati from securing the right tackle position beyond the 2024 season. Fuaga is a tone-setter and a solid pass blocker, making him exactly who Joe Burrow needs protecting him.
So begins the mid-round tackle run. The Rams have shifted from a wide-zone base to a power gap running scheme, making Mims, a total juggernaut, a perfect fit.
Pittsburgh’s offensive line is a mess. Barton is a legitimate five-spot player, though he will likely find a home somewhere along the interior.
Losing Christian Wilkins was a major blow to Miami’s defense. Newton falls in their lap and makes it all better.
Howie Roseman does not draft for today; he drafts for tomorrow. Though Lane Johnson will be the starting right tackle for Philadelphia in 2024, he may not be for much longer beyond that. Latham gets to develop behind one of the best right tackles of his generation.
Jettisoning Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason left the Chargers without any starting wide receivers. Adding the 23rd pick allows Jim Harbaugh to replace them with Mitchell, a big-play threat with speed and scoring potential.
The Jones’ don’t care about positional value so much as grabbing the guys they like and need. Powers-Johnson is a solid replacement for Tyler Biadasz and will keep the Cowboys offensive line intact.
Somehow the Packers land one of the best offensive tackles in the class deep into the first round. Fashanu is a little light as a run blocker, but there may not be a pass protector with a higher ceiling in this class.
Latu is not a supreme athlete, but he is a supreme pass rusher. While the Bucs tend to draft high-end athletes with their top pick, they immediately upgrade their pass rush off the edge drafting Latu.
The Cardinals roll the dice on Robinson’s absurd athletic profile and upside. They will count on Jonathan Gannon to develop him into a team-leading pass rusher.
Much of what comprised the core of the Buffalo secondary, and frankly the entire defense, is now gone following the release of Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. The Bills’ first step in rebuilding the secondary is stealing Wiggins. While undersized, Wiggins is one of best pure cover corners in this class.
Detroit learned last season that Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill needed a third musketeer to complete their otherwise formidable defensive line. The addition of D.J. Reader will massively help the run defense, but drafting Robinson will give the Lions a true bookend to Hutchinson.
GM Eric DeCosta usually has plans ready for key positions well before the need is obvious. Guyton is a work in progress at a tackle, but the Ravens can afford to bring him on slowly, building on his long frame and incredible explosiveness. Ronnie Stanley is entering the final year of his contract and has struggled to stay healthy, playing just 31 games in the last four seasons. Drafting Guyton gets Baltimore way ahead of the curve.
Kyle Shanahan’s offense can usually make do with replacement-level offensive line play, but it was a major weakness in the Niners’ Super Bowl LVIII loss. Frazier is a major upgrade to a line that for too long as depended on Shanahan to conjure magic on their behalf.
Travis Kelce is nearing the end of his career, and so far, the Chiefs have made no moves to compensate for the inevitable loss of his skill set. Sanders is not as big as Kelce, and maybe not quite as athletic, but like Kelce, he catches pretty much anything thrown his general direction. That was a bit of problem for Kansas City skill players last year. It’s a bit of a reach, but the Chiefs are not going to get a player like Sanders anywhere else in the draft.