You cannot say that Michael Penix Jr. is a raw recruit. His 13, 741 passing yards rank No. 15 all-time in NCAA football history. That trails No. 6 Bo Nix (15,352) and even the lesser known Sam Hartman (15,656 Notre Dame) and Dillon Gabriel (14,865 Oklahoma) who also played last year in the pass-happy NCAA, where additional years of eligibility thanks to COVID rewrite career records.
Both Penix and Gabriel had rare six-year careers in college. Penix spent four at Indiana where he was the starter for two years but never played in more than seven contests. Penix suffered season-ending injuries every year as a Huskie – two shoulder issues and two torn ACLs. He was productive when playing, but he always missed about half of the games each year.
Penix transferred to Washington for the final two years. He finally remained healthy and led the nation with 4,903 passing yards last season. In 2022, during his first campaign with the Huskies, he passed for 4,641 yards to rank No. 2 in the nation. He claimed he returned in 2023 just to prove that he was truly over his injury problems. That was two straight seasons as no worse than the No. 2 passer in the nation.
Penix excelled in Washington thanks to staying healthy and playing in their pass-intensive scheme. Head coach Kalen DeBoer parlayed his two seasons there into becoming the new head coach at Alabama for 2024. The last two seasons were a magical time for the Huskies offense.
Ironically, had his only time in college been the last two years, Penix would likely have been a candidate for the first quarterback selected this year. Still, he is a first-round grade that is a lock to be a Top-5 quarterback and may end up in the first half of Round 1.
Height: 6-2
Weight: 218 pounds
40 time: 4.46 seconds unofficial
Penix attended the NFL combine where his 6-2 height and 216 pounds are prototypical, and his hands (10 1/2″) and wingspan (81″) were the largest among all quarterbacks there.
Michael Penix Jr. stats (2018-23)
| Year | School | Games | Runs | Yards | TD | Pass | Complete | Yards | Avg. | TD | Int |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Indiana | 3 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 34 | 21 | 219 | 6.4 | 1 | 0 |
| 2019 | Indiana | 7 | 22 | 119 | 2 | 160 | 110 | 1394 | 8.7 | 10 | 4 |
| 2020 | Indiana | 6 | 18 | 25 | 2 | 220 | 124 | 1645 | 7.5 | 14 | 4 |
| 2021 | Indiana | 5 | 17 | 17 | 2 | 162 | 87 | 939 | 5.8 | 4 | 7 |
| 2022 | Washington | 13 | 35 | 35 | 4 | 554 | 362 | 4641 | 8.4 | 31 | 8 |
| 2023 | Washington | 15 | 35 | 35 | 3 | 555 | 363 | 4903 | 8.8 | 36 | 11 |
Pros
- Prototypical pocket passer
- Mature, 24-year old with six years of experience in college; top NCAA passer over the last two seasons
- Huge hands for ball security – only four fumbles total in six years
- Monster arm can effortlessly connect on any deep throw and has the accuracy to make any NFL throw
- Advanced ability to read defenses and exploit weaknesses
- Aggressive passer who trusts his receivers and a respected leader in the offense.
- Short memory keeps him consistently challenging defense
- Can drop dimes anywhere on the field and throws passes that help receiver add yards-after-catch.
- Skillset matches up well with offenses in the current NFL
Cons
- Durability will always be a concern. Inarguably great the last two years, but four previous seasons with consecutive serious injuries
- Not as effective passing outside of the pocket
- Won’t tack on much yardage as a rusher but capable of goal-line runs
- Needs improved footwork to survive in the pocket against an NFL rush
Fantasy outlook
Penix enters the NFL draft as a quarterback of extremes. That likely drops his draft stock slightly, but he is still much coveted after throwing for more yardage over the last two years than anyone in the NCAA. As he himself said, he cannot do anything about his extensive history with injuries other than point at the last two seasons of health and elite stats.
He’ll always carry risk after four straight years of landing on injured reserve, so his placement in the NFL depends on which team values his potential more than his risk. Penix isn’t likely to do much as a rusher in the NFL, but he just threw 1,109 passes over the last two years and is a perfect fit in the pass-happy NFL.
Penix is likely outside of the Top-10 picks in April, but the further he falls from that, the more likely a team will move up to grab him. He’s been linked to the Los Angeles Raiders, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings, and Washington Commanders.
Penix doesn’t need the seasoning that most rookie quarterbacks do since he played for six seasons and the last two were as good as any college quarterback. All players are sensitive to the situation they find with their new team, but Penix deserves fantasy consideration, even as a rookie, no matter where he ends up. He’s not offering rushing production. He offers a scary history of injury. But he is also in the argument as the best passer entering the NFL this year.