2024 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Game Preview & Prediction: No. 13 Yale vs. No. 5 SDSU
SDSU overcame U of A Birmingham’s underrated power. They prepare to take on Yale this Sunday in Spokane, Washington.
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The #13 Bulldogs upset #4 Auburn. Can they register back-to-back upsets with #5 SDSU on Sunday… or not?
WHO: Yale Bulldogs (23-9, 11-3 Ivy) vs. San Diego State University Aztecs (25-10, 11-7 MW)
WHEN: Sunday, March 24th – 6:40 a.m. PST | 9:40 p.m. EST
WHERE: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena-Spokane, WA (Capacity 12,638)
WATCH: TBS
RADIO: San Diego Sports 760 / SiriusXM App ch. 968
SERIES RECORD: SDSU and Yale meet for the 1st time on Sunday.
WEBSITES: GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website; YaleBulldogs.com, the official Yale athletics website.
ODDS: SDSU -5.5
OVER/UNDER: 128.5
Spokane, WA – The No. 13 Yale Bulldogs (23-9) face the No. 5 SDSU Aztecs (25-10) in a second round East Region game in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off from Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena in Washington is scheduled for Sunday evening at 9:40 p.m. EST (TBS).
The 2024 NCAA Tournament has already seen several upsets- none more pronounced than No. 14 Oakland’s unbelievable first round takedown of No. 3 Kentucky. No. 13 Yale’s stunning 78-76 takedown of the No. 4 Auburn Tigers was another Cindarella match, but well deserved. Yale showed the skills of a tournament-worthy team.
Meanwhile, No. 5 San Diego State held off No. 12 UAB 69-65 to advance to the second round, thanks to stellar performance by Jaedon LeDee and Lamont Butler. The second-round match is set for Sunday.
San Diego State made an historic tournament run in 2023, and reached the championship game, where they were bested by UCONN in the Finals. This season the Aztecs finished fifth in the talent-packed Mountain West.
Who will move on to the Sweet 16? Let’s take a closer look.
Why The Bulldogs Will Win
Yale waged back-to-back dramatic wins to reach the Round of 32.
Last Sunday, the Bulldogs won the Ivy League Championship on a last second tip-in victory over the Brown Bears, to punch their ticket to the Tournament with an auto bid.
Next, on Friday, they pulled a highly unlikely upset over SEC champion Auburn. John Poulakidas produced 28 points going 10-of-15 in the field and the Bulldogs escaped several last-second shot attempts by the frenetic Tigers to advance to the second round. The Bulldogs battled back from a 10-point deficit with just over seven minutes left but took a lead they wouldn’t lose following Poulakidas’ 3-point basket at 2:10 remaining in the 2nd half.
“I don’t know if that’s the best win in Yale basketball history, but I will tell you that is the best basketball team we’ve beaten,” said Yale head coach James Jones.
With 23 wins Yale heads into the second round against San Diego State. The Bulldogs are 145th in the nation in scoring this season. They are 67th in field goal shooting and 145th in 3-point shooting. The Bulldogs are 188th in the nation in 3-point field goals made per game. Defensively, Yale is 61st in scoring defense. The Bulldogs are a solid 93rd in field goal defense and 186th in 3-point defense. They are 122nd in total rebounds.
Yale is an impressive 12th in the country in fewest turnovers per game.
If Yale is able to stop LeDee, Butler, Reese Waters, Darrion Tramell and the Aztecs, they could post another upset and advance to the Sweet 16.
Why The Aztecs Will Win
Yale played great basketball in the Round of 64, but it’s very important to note that Auburn got incredibly sloppy in the second half. Good Bulldog play was complemented by disjointed Tiger second half play.
The win over UAB was hard fought and the Aztecs won in no small part to All-American forward LeDee who registered a staggering 32 points and grabbed eight boards. LeDee is the locomotive of San Diego State.
Three factors give the Aztecs an edge: physical ability, NCAA Tourney experience, and supreme composure. The Aztecs do not lose their cool- even when trailing. These are the same factors that the Bulldogs will face. No matter how much preparation Yale musters they will have their hands full.
San Diego State always puts on an elite defensive master class. If San Diego State applies their patented elite defense against Yale’s strong offense, the Aztecs will reduce the Bulldogs’ point production.
The emotion of back-to-back last hope-and-prayer victories could mean this Cindarella story is nearing its end.
What Will Happen
The Aztecs are more than capable of handling a deliberate opponent like Yale. The Bulldogs forced the Tigers to beat them in a slower-paced game and the Tigers struggled with turnovers at that slower pace.
San Diego State is comfortable playing a slow pace and the Aztecs won’t turn the ball over as frequently as Auburn. The Aztecs will make the Bulldogs work for each and every bucket. The defense will be stifling.
The Tigers got sloppy, fouling the Bulldogs often, and it sealed their fate.
San Diego State will not have that issue. In fact, the Aztecs have a foul magnet. This is a good matchup for San Diego State, so look for the Aztecs to advance to the Sweet 16 (again) with a strong win on Sunday night.
Final Score: SDSU 68, Yale 61
Next Up
The winner of No. 5 San Diego State and No. 13 Yale will square off in the Sweet 16 with the winner of No. 1 UCONN (32-3) and No. 9 Northwestern (22-11) at a date and time yet to be determined.