2024 March Madness: Final Four long shots worthy of NCAA Tournament futures bet

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If its the Big Dance, and if we’re looking for a fairytale-comes-true return on investment then its a Cinderella we want.

Below, we look at 4 teams with decent value and their NCAA Tournament Final Four futures odds from BetMGM Sportsbook’s (OR FanDuel Sportsbook’s) and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.

For this analysis, we’ll stay away from the top 20% of teams listed in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and the top 25% seeds (top 4 each region) in the tournament brackets. We’ll look for teams whose chances of reaching the Final Four may not be a slam dunk, but they will have relative value compared to the risk. We’ll track down 4 teams at diverse price points, but value is value.

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Final Four long-shot predictions

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7:37 p.m. ET.

Wisconsin Badgers (+1400)

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Wisconsin (22-13) — the 5-seed in the South Region — lost to Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament championship game, but the Badgers led that contest by 9 points inside the 15-minute mark. UW was undone by Illinois going 26 of 30 at the free-throw line.

Wisconsin beat No. 3-ranked Purdue in a Saturday Big Ten semifinal, and the Badgers had played the Boilermakers tough in an earlier loss. Top South Region seeds Houston (No. 1) and Marquette (No. 2) may end up with some injury or injury-return continuity issues, and No. 3 Kentucky needs its potent offense to click to avoid upsets. So, the Badgers have a path.

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San Diego State Aztecs (+2000)

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The Aztecs (24-10) — the No. 5 in the East — are just 6-4 over their last 10 games, but they have the defense (39% field-goal accuracy allowed over those 10 games) and court skills to make for profit leverage at this price point. SDSU’s Jaedon LeDee is a power forward with possible late 1st-round NBA talent, and he could be a difference maker in a lot of key minutes — and games — as the East Region rolls toward crowning its Final Four entrant.

Alongside LeDee, a 6-foot-9, 240-poinder averaging 21.1 points and 8.4 rebounds, San Diego State sports a veteran lineup. The Aztecs get their 1st 2 potential games in their own time zone (games in Spokane).

The futures market had shorter overall futures odds on SDSU a couple weeks ago, and they fit as a decent value when trying to find a play from back in the pack.

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McNeese State Cowboys (+8000)

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The Cowboys (30-3) are tabbed as the No. 12 seed in the Midwest. Their path lays out with decent matchups, and they are a dangerous 3-point shooting team (39.4%) playing at a slower-than-average pace. That is often the formula for Cinderella runs in March.

McNeese State may have some trouble forcing enough less-than-optimum mid-range looks, but if it can catch an opponent or 2 having off-kilter shooting games it has a legitimate shot at making a run. The Cowboys create a lot of near-proximity and quality perimeter looks when they’re on offense.

Saint Mary’s Gaels (+1400)

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West No. 5-seed Saint Mary’s (26-7) has filed just 1 loss in 2024. The West Coast Conference champs are 18-1 — knocking down triples at a 39.9% clip along the way — over their last 19 games.

Ranked as the KenPom No. 20, they too can slow down a game and drain 3s. The Gaels also excel on defense (KenPom 3rd in defensive efficiency). SMC’s pace could be problematic for speed demons like Alabama or North Carolina, which could well be 2nd- and 3rd-round matchups.

Saint Mary’s has won tourney games each of the last 2 years and may be poised to takes things a step or 2 farther.

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