2024 BMW Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

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After trimming the FedExCup playoff race from 70 to 50 players at the FedEx St. Jude Championship this past weekend, another 20 players will be eliminated this week at the 2024 BMW Championship. It’s the 2nd leg of the playoffs before the Tour Championship where the FedExCup champion will be crowned at East Lake. The BMW Championship is being hosted by Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado for the 1st time.

Below, we look at BetMGM Sportsbook’s 2024 BMW Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

The field this week is limited to only the top 50 players in the FedExCup standings, which leaves players such as Tom Kim, Jake Knapp and Justin Rose on the outside. Scottie Scheffler remains the top player in the standings, followed by Xander Schauffele and last week’s champion, Hideki Matsuyama. Keegan Bradley was the 50th and final player to get into the field, so he’ll need a big week if he’s going to make it to Atlanta.

Castle Pines is a staggering 8,130 yards long and a par 72, but that’s due to the elevation effect. At 6,200 feet above sea level, the ball will travel a lot further this week, which makes up for the longer yardage numbers on the scorecard. The higher elevation will add about 10% more yardage to players’ shots, bringing the realistic distance down to about 7,300 yards.

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BMW Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 4:26 p.m. ET.

Xander Schauffele (+550)

Course history is essentially non-existent this week, which makes it a good time to bet the top of the board with Schauffele. You can’t go wrong with Scheffler, either, but Schauffele is in equally great form and was top-7 in both SG: putting and tee-to-green last week in Memphis.

Collin Morikawa (+1400)

Morikawa had a weird week in Memphis, finishing 14th in SG: putting but 41st tee-to-green. His numbers are usually the other way around, but perhaps it’s an indication that he’s found something with the putter and that last week’s ball-striking performance was an outlier from the norm.

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BMW Championship picks – Contenders

Aaron Rai (+4000)

Rai has been one of the best iron players and overall ball-strikers on tour this season, continuing that trend in Memphis where he was 2nd in SG: tee-to-green but 64th out of 70 players on the greens. In a tournament at a relatively new course to most of the field, bet on ball-strikers.

Wyndham Clark (+2800)

Clark has been a tough player to bet on all year because of how volatile he’s been. He’s surprisingly been fairly consistent since the Travelers Championship in June, finishing 9th, 10th, 14th and 7th in 4 of his last 5 starts; he also missed the cut at the Open Championship during that stretch. Last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, he was 7th from tee-to-green and 13th in SG: putting.

Tony Finau (+2800)

Finau tied for 16th last week after ranking 12th in SG: tee-to-green, once again putting on a ball-striking display in Memphis. Aside from missing the cut at the Open, he’s played great recently; he’s finished T-18 or better in 7 of his last 8 starts since the PGA Championship.

BMW Championship picks – Long shot

Nick Dunlap (+6600)

Dunlap had a great showing in Memphis and was in contention on the weekend, securing his spot in the top 50. He did so by ranking 6th in SG: tee-to-green and 11th in putting, really only struggling around the greens. If he plays like that again, he’ll be in contention for the 2nd straight week.

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