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The NASCAR Cup Series heads back to Talladega Superspeedway for the 2023 YellaWood 500 Sunday afternoon. The green flag is set to drop shortly after 2 p.m. ET (NBC). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 YellaWood 500 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
2023 Yellawood 500: What you need to know
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott leads all active drivers with a 14.1 Average-Finish Position (AFP) at Talladega (minimum 3 Cup starts)
- Elliott has 2 wins, 5 top-5 finishes and 7 top-10 runs in 15 career Cup starts with 201 led, while posting 3 DNFs
- Team Penske driver Ryan Blaney has 2 Cup wins at Talladega, while posting 5 top-5 results and 7 top-10 finishes with 275 laps led and 4 DNFs with a 15.2 AFP
- RFK Racing’s Brad Keselowski leads all active drivers with 6 checkered flags at Talladega, with all of those victories coming in the No. 2 machine as a member of Team Penske
- Penske’s Joey Logano has won checkers 3 times at Talladega, posting an 18.3 AFP with 9 top-5 finishes in 29 career Cup starts, while also posting 9 DNFs
- Hendrick’s Kyle Larson needs a good showing to avoid elimination from the playoffs. He has a dismal 23.4 AFP in 17 career Cup starts at Talladega, with just 1 top-5 finish and 3 top-10 runs with 6 DNFs
- The past 4 winners at Talladega have started 16th or lower in the grid, so don’t put too much stock into pole winners or starting starts
- Only Ford and Chevrolet have won races on the superspeedways since the NextGen car was introduced
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2023 Yellawood 500 – Expert pick
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:03 a.m. ET.
JOEY LOGANO (+1300) is a good value at this price. He has won 3 times at Talladega Superspeedway in the past, and he seems to have a knack of laying back in the weeds, playing it safe and letting the rest of the field knock itself out, while being an opportunist and moving up through the field at the right time.
Even playing LOGANO TOP-10 FINISH (-140) isn’t terribly expensive. He has finished in the top 10 on 11 different occasions in 29 career Cup starts, or 37.9% of his runs at the track.
Picking a winner at the superspeedway is like picking a needle out of a haystack. A non-playoff driver has won at Talladega just once since 2014, and that’s when 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace claimed checkers in 2021.
If there is a non-playoff driver, or eliminated playoff driver, to throw a monkey wrench into things, RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (+2500) is the guy. He won the Daytona 500 (in 2017) — the Olive Branch, Miss., native is a master on the superspeedways.
A STENHOUSE TOP-10 FINISH (+125) at plus-money is also a very good play. He has finished 10th or better in 9 of his 20 career Cup starts at what is essentially his home track, which equates to 45.0% of his starts.
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2023 YellaWood 500 – Long shot
AUSTIN DILLON (+3500) is another one of those long-shot plays worth paying some mind.
The driver of the No. 3 machine is a good value. While he has never won in 20 career Cup starts, he has managed 2 top-5 runs and 5 top-10 finishes with a respectable 18.8 AFP, which is better than the likes of Kyle Busch (19.9 AF), Chris Buescher (19.9) and Martin Truex Jr. (21.4) to name a few.
2023 YellaWood 500 – Props
FORD (+110) is a decent play at plus-money to be the winning manufacturer, as Logano is my top pick to earn checkers at Talladega.
In addition, playing RYAN BLANEY (-144) in a head-to-head matchup over Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch (+112). Blaney has 2 wins in 18 career Cup starts at the superspeedway, while posting a 15.2 AFP with 275 laps led. Busch has 2 wins at ‘Dega, but he also has 7 DNFs, with just 8 of his 36 career Cup starts resulting in top-5 finishes. Blaney is by far more consistent at this track in his career.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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