The PGA Tour’s only match-play event will be held this week at Austin Country Club as 64 of the top players in the world compete at the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. This is the last year of the event as the tour moves away from match-play competition. The group stage begins on Wednesday morning and the tournament will conclude on Sunday.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
This is once again a loaded field, with Cameron Smith and Justin Thomas being the only top-10 players not teeing it up this week. Scottie Scheffler is back to defend his title, going up against the likes of Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth.
Austin Country Club levels the playing field for competitors, being a shorter course (7,108 yards, par 71). It features a lot of elevation change and 2 vastly different 9s, which makes for exciting matches around the course. There are reachable par 5s and the 13th is a drivable par 4 with a lake in front, so the risk-reward factor is evident this week.
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WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play – Top-4 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:19 a.m. ET.
Jordan Spieth (+550)
What helps Spieth on his path to the semifinals is that he avoids the big three of Scheffler, McIlroy and Rahm. As the No. 12 seed, the top potential seed he’ll face before the semifinals is Cantlay, who’s No. 4. Spieth was a match-play wizard at the Presidents Cup and is coming off a great showing at the Valspar Championship, which he was in position to win before a tee shot in the water on the 16th hole.
Tyrell Hatton (+700)
If Hatton wins his group, his 1st-round matchup will be against McIlroy, assuming he also advances. That’s not great, but if he can get by McIlroy, Hatton has a good chance to knock off the other top seeds in his quadrant, Matt Fitzpatrick or Xander Schauffele, in the quarterfinals if they get there.
Scottie Scheffler (+230)
Scheffler should be able to win his group against Tom Kim, Alex Noren and Davis Riley. After that, the top seeds standing in his way of the semis are e Im, Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland. It’s not the easiest path, but it’s a very doable one for the defending champ who grew up in and lives in Dallas.
Other T4 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Cameron Young (+750)
- Sungjae Im (+700)
- Tony Finau (+700)
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WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play – Group winners
Group 3 winner: Rory McIlroy (+105)
McIlroy’s group is relatively weak and getting him at +105 is a good value to advance. Even with his equipment tinkering, I like McIlroy this week after a disappointing showing at The Players. The others in his group are Keegan Bradley (+280), Scott Stallings (+550) and Denny McCarthy (+330). Bradley, who’s having a good season, is the biggest threat to McIlroy.
Group 4 winner: Nick Taylor (+400)
Taylor is the long shot in his group against Cantlay (+110), K.H. Lee (+400) and Brian Harman (+320). This is his tournament debut, but he’s coming off a 10th-place finish at the Valspar Championship. Cantlay has never advanced past the group stage in 4 tries.
Group 7 winner: Ryan Fox (+280)
Will Zalatoris (+155) is the favorite in this group, followed by Fox, Harris English (+320) and Andrew Putnam (+330). And as easy as it is to like Zalatoris, there are still some questions about his game right now after back-to-back finishes outside the top 50. Fox has 5 straight top-30 finishes.
Group 8 winner: Viktor Hovland (+162)
Hovland has Si-Woo Kim (+300), Chris Kirk (+320) and Matt Kuchar (+320) in his group. Kuchar is a horse for this event, but Hovland is striking the ball so well right now and Kim and Kirk don’t worry me too much. If Hovland can get the putter going, he’ll have a great chance this week.
Group 10 winner: Tony Finau (+162)
Finau gets Kurt Kitayama (+280), Christian Bezuidenhout (+350) and Adrian Meronk (+380) in his group. All things considered, Finau should probably have even shorter odds than +162. However, in 4 tries, he’s never made it past the group stage. I still like his chances against a group with 2 debutants and another who’s struggled in 2 trips here.
Group 12 winner: Jordan Spieth (+170)
Spieth’s group looks relatively weak on paper, with Shane Lowry (+210), Mackenzie Hughes (+480) and Taylor Montgomery (+300) being the others competing with the Texas native. Lowry has run hot and cold lately and has failed to make it out of group play in his last 6 attempts. Hughes is 1-for-2 in advancing past the group stage and Montgomery is making his debut.
Group 14 winner: Tyrell Hatton (+115)
It might seem crazy for Hatton to be +115 to win his group, but I like him as the heavy favorite over Russell Henley (+270), Lucas Herbert (+450) and Ben Griffin (+380). Henley has never made it out of his group, Herbert came up short in his debut last year and this is Griffin’s 1st time playing this event.
Group 15 winner: Cameron Young (+162)
Young is a fun pick this week because of his firepower off the tee. He gets Corey Conners (+230), who was a semifinalist last year, Sepp Straka (+350) and Davis Thompson (+380) in his group, which is a good way for the 2nd-year pro to start his week. At +162, Young is a solid bet to advance out of the group stage.
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play – Top American
Scottie Scheffler (+480)
Scheffler is +750 to win the whole thing, but he’s worth betting at +480 to be the top American. That eliminates players such as McIlroy, Rahm, Hatton, Jason Day and Hovland, leaving Scheffler to beat the likes of Finau, Spieth, Cantlay, Max Homa and the rest of the Americans. It’s still a great group, but Scheffler is the top player in the world and the defending champ.
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